Biden warns Netanyahu against escalation as risk of regional war grows

The big picture: U.S. officials don't mourn the deaths of either Hezbollah's top military commander Fuad Shukr, who was involved in killing 241 U.S. Marines in Beirut in 1983, or Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who celebrated the Oct. 7 massacre.

• But they feel that Netanyahu kept Biden in the dark over his plans to carry out the assassinations, after leaving the impression last week that he was attentive to the president's request to focus on getting a Gaza deal.
• The Biden administration has put a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas at the center of its entire post-war strategy in the Middle East.
• Biden is personally involved in the efforts to reach an agreement and sees it a core element of his legacy in his remaining six months in office.

Driving the news: U.S. officials told Axios Biden called Netanyahu to discuss U.S.-Israeli joint military preparations for retaliations by Iran and Hezbollah — but also to make clear he was not pleased with the direction the Israeli prime minister has taken in the last week.

• One U.S. official said Biden complained to Netanyahu that the two had just spoken last week in the Oval Office about securing the hostage deal, but instead Netanyahu went ahead with the assassination in Tehran.
• Biden then told Netanyahu the U.S. will help Israel defeat an Iranian attack, but after that he expects no more escalation from the Israeli side and immediate movement toward a hostage deal, the U.S. official said.

Biden also warned Netanyahu that if he escalates again, he shouldn't count on the U.S. to bail him out, the U.S. official added.

• The White House declined to comment.
• The Israeli prime minister's office said in a statement: "Prime Minister Netanyahu told President Biden that he appreciates the American support, and as Prime Minister of Israel he acts solely according to the security needs of the State of Israel."

Behind the scenes: At the end of the meeting with Netanyahu in the Oval office last Thursday, Biden became emotional, raised his voice and told Netanyahu he needs to reach a Gaza deal as soon as possible, three Israeli officials with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

• "Biden raised his voice and said he wants a deal reached within a week to two weeks," a senior Israeli official said.
• "Biden told Netanyahu that a hostage and ceasefire deal is the most important thing right now," the Israeli official added.
• Shortly after, when the president and the Israeli prime minister met with the families of the American hostages held in Gaza, Biden doubled down on his message to Netanyahu.
• "We are at an inflection point … we need to do everything to end the war and reach regional stability, even if the deal is not perfect. Hamas wants the deal right now. It might change," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the notes of one of the participants.

What they're saying: "I had a very direct meeting with the prime minister today. Very direct," Biden told reporters on Thursday night about his call with Netanyahu.

• Biden said there is a basis for a ceasefire and stressed Netanyahu should "move on it now."
• When asked if the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh has ruined the chances for a deal, Biden said: "It hasn't helped."