Border crossings plunge to lowest levels in decades: New data
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
The number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border plummeted in February to the lowest level seen in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios.
The big picture: Crossings had been trending down for several months, driven by policies on either side of the U.S.-Mexico border, experts say. But the numbers have plunged since Trump began implementing — and broadcasting — his sweeping immigration crackdown.
- "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote in a Saturday Truth Social post celebrating the decline.
- The drop represents an overlap of Trump's sweeping changes in policy and rhetoric with trends that began months before he returned to the White House, said the Migration Policy Institute's Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, who closely tracks border data.
Driving the news: Border Patrol recorded around 8,300 apprehensions of migrants who crossed the border unlawfully between ports of entry in February, according to the data obtained by Axios.
- In January, according to CBP statistics, Border Patrol recorded some 29,100 encounters, down from around 47,300 the month prior.
- The February numbers are the lowest recorded since FY 2000, the earliest year of monthly data publicly accessible.
- There were over 130,000 encounters in both February 2023 and 2024.
Context: Illegal border crossings spiked at the end of 2023 but started to slope downward in 2024 after the Biden administration implemented new restrictions and Mexican officials ramped up enforcement.
- Mexico's actions were a "really key" reason for the downward trend "that often goes a bit under the radar," said Putzel-Kavanaugh.
- Former President Biden in June signed an executive order that took aggressive action to curtail border surges by implementing asylum restrictions in periods where border encounters were high.
- That triggered a "huge dip" in the number of migrants arriving irregularly between ports of entry, Putzel-Kavanaugh said.
The Trump administration's long-promised crackdown started on day one of his term. It sent shockwaves throughout the immigration system.
- Officials shut down an app that facilitated the legal entry of some migrants at the border, used military aircraft for deportations and loudly publicized a plan for mass deportations.
- The CBP One mobile application going dark left thousands stranded in Mexico, with their appointments for asylum screenings canceled.
- "The calculus was really starting to shift [prior to the app being shut down] where people were waiting in Mexico to get those appointments and be able to be processed that way, because there would still be access to humanitarian protection," Putzel-Kavanaugh said.
Zoom in: Migrants are likely in a "wait-and-see" moment today, Putzel-Kavanaugh said, as they make sense of how to navigate "many different layered policies" that make it "really hard to know if there's really access to humanitarian protection."
- There are also a number of pending legal challenges to the Trump administration's policies, including its efforts to fast-track deportations.
What to watch: Border crossings also fell sharply when Trump took office in 2017, but he faced his own border crisis when they spiked in 2019 — though not to the levels seen under Biden.
- It's unclear if the current ultra-low levels will be sustainable, says Putzel-Kavanaugh, noting border numbers are "volatile" and fluctuate in the context of an "ever-changing environment."
- And with Mexico playing a key role in keeping border numbers low, it's uncertain how tumultuous cross-border diplomacy — and a burgeoning trade war — will play into migration enforcement conversations.
Go deeper: Scoop: Trump's immigration arrests appear to lag Biden's
