Trump's (oil) abundance strategy

• Relying less on imported oil, combined with the soft global market, gives the U.S. an expanded foreign-policy menu.
• So if Trump wants to capture Venezuela's leader — or threaten and bomb Iran — he can do it with much less risk in spiking pump prices at home.

Catch up fast: The U.S. has nearly tripled oil production over the last 15-ish years, thanks to fracking unlocking vast reserves of oil and natural gas in shale rock formations in Texas and several other states.

• The U.S. is now — by far — the world's top producer at nearly 14 million barrels per day.
• "The shale revolution has certainly brought a sense of confidence and security that wasn't there when the U.S. was the largest importer of oil," oil historian and S&P Global vice chairman Dan Yergin said in an interview.
• Venezuela's output, by comparison, is 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day.

Flashback: When the Venezuelan government expropriated Exxon's and ConocoPhillips' assets in 2007, the U.S. produced around 5 million barrels per day. Then the shale boom took off.

• "We have energy security in this country now, but it is important that for future reserves, that we look for other places," Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, told Fox News on Thursday.

Reality check: The same petro-forces now emboldening Trump will complicate his vision of U.S. oil companies making massive investments to rebuild Venezuela's production.

• Companies still enjoy big U.S. opportunities and prospects elsewhere. Modest prices are another obstacle to spending in a risky country.
• Even for companies looking abroad, the consultancy Wood Mackenzie's 2026 oil outlook notes that U.S. producers still have foreign opportunities in the Middle East, Latin America and North Africa.

"Oil demand is still growing. U.S. shale production is flatlining," Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, told NPR. "So companies are already looking for the next sources of investment around the world, in complicated places geopolitically like Libya or Iraq."

• Needless to say, those countries are watching what unfolds in Venezuela.

Zoom out: Analysts say that while interest and risk tolerance will vary by company, overall the biggest and more expert players will hesitate to spend big sums in Venezuela.

• That's especially true for any near-term efforts, when profitably producing from Venezuela would be tough.
• "Prices are certainly a big issue. At $60 per barrel, Venezuela's oil isn't profitable. This is some of the highest-cost oil to produce," oil analyst Ellen Wald said in an interview.
• And, she notes, Trump's goal is to push prices downward.

She cited another reason for industry's hesitation: Even if Trump dangles financial incentives, a future president could always pull them back.

• While she's skeptical, Wald doesn't rule out U.S. producers — who think in multi-decade cycles — becoming open to investing in long-term projects if Venezuela's political situation stabilizes.

What we're watching: How these crosscurrents will blow into Trump's White House meeting with oil executives about Venezuela on Friday.

• The 17 companies represented include U.S.-based but also some foreign players.
• The list includes Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Repsol, Eni, Continental Resources, Hilcorp , refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero, oilfield service heavyweight Halliburton, as well as commodity trading giants Trafigura and Vitol and others.

Amy Harder contributed.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include the companies attending Friday's White House meeting.