Axios

There's a big shift happening in Big Tech as the AI transition enters a new era.

Why it matters: Investors are changing the way they price these superstar stocks, but judging by what happened in the market Tuesday, they are not totally sure how to do so.

Pioneering a whole new class of car is hard enough, but musician will.i.am tells Axios he also wants his Trinity three-wheeled electric vehicle to be an AI agent, helping its driver plow through e-mails or plot out strategy.

Why it matters: Trinity is the epitome of the kind of ambition sweeping Silicon Valley: that AI can turn even a single-seat vehicle into a platform — and that building it can revive left-behind communities.

President Trump will address the nation on Wednesday evening on the war in Iran, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

Why it matters: Leavitt's Tuesday evening announcement on X came soon after Trump told reporters at the White House that U.S. forces could leave the Middle East in "two or three weeks."

The oil shortage brought on by the Iran war will spread throughout the world, much as COVID-19 did, moving from east to west and leaving a path of destruction in its wake, a new analysis says.

Why it matters: If the oil shock plays out along those lines, it would mean the global economy has only just begun to feel the pain of the war's impact.

HOUSTON — As nuclear energy industry deals pile up, executives are turning their focus to what many describe as a huge challenge: How to build multiple plants quickly.

Why it matters: Nuclear energy is seen as critical to supplying enough power for AI data centers' massive electricity needs.

Forget earnings reports or other corporate announcements, the stock market really has just two main catalysts this year: AI anxiety and President Trump.

Why it matters: It's like a pinball machine where the flippers are Truth Social and Anthropic blog posts.

America's biggest tech companies are getting hammered by investors as the war in Iran spikes oil prices and kills rate cut hopes.

Why it matters: The tech companies that drove the stock market's gains for the last three years are now its biggest headache.

Oil prices climbed above $116 per barrel after markets opened Sunday, as Iran-backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend and promised to continue attacks.

Why it matters: The high price that remained around the $116 a barrel mark late Sunday came as the war moved into its fifth week, showing little sign of abating despite President Trump's talk of diplomacy.

HOUSTON — Tom Taylor, president and CEO of the $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund, lacks a climate background.

• But he brings business and engineering experience — and, crucially, Jeff Bezos experience — to the role.

When the Iran war started, market analysts issued reassuring notes: Short-lived geopolitical shocks don't typically rattle the stock market, they said.

Why it matters: We're now into month two of conflict. Equities are wobbling, and investors are growing increasingly skeptical of President Trump's assurances.

Where it stands: The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is now down 11% from its record-high close on Oct. 29 — officially entering correction territory.

• The Russell 2000, an index tracking smaller companies, landed in correctionville last week.
• The S&P 500 has held up a bit better, but it's down 7.2% from its closing high.

Catch up quick: Minutes after the market closed Thursday, Trump posted that he was extending the deadline for Iran negotiations.

• "As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 days." That would bring his latest deadline to Monday, April 6.

The latest: That statement didn't calm the markets for long. Oil prices spiked to around $110 a barrel when the market reopened.

• "While the delay might reduce some of the immediate escalation risk, it offers no new visibility on the path toward resolution," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note this morning.

The big picture: If the market does take a another leg down, the effects on American households would be more pronounced than in previous oil price shock moments.

• Nearly 40% of household wealth in the U.S. is tied up in stocks — compared with about 10% during the 1990 oil price shock, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a note yesterday.
• That means Americans would be hit with a double whammy from the geopolitical conflict: higher energy prices and lower brokerage account balances. That in turn would be a drag on overall economic growth, as households cut back on spending.
• It would also be another downer to the consumer mood.

Zoom out: The stock market doesn't typically take kindly to long periods of high oil prices stemming from Middle East Conflict.

• Over the past 50 years, there were nine oil price shocks, where prices rose 20% or more, according to an analysis from Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

Zoom in: Four of those shocks led to a selloff in stocks — an S&P decline greater than 10%:

• The 1973 oil embargo, the Iranian hostage crisis, the 1990 Gulf war and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
• In each case, oil prices rose more than 50%.

Stunning stat: The price of Brent crude is up nearly 40% from the beginning of the war.

Yes, but: It's not just the oil price that triggered the selloff, Seydl writes. Each of those selloffs coincided with either a recession in the six months after the shock or Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

• The past doesn't predict the future.

What to watch: Weekend postings by Trump. The president has had a tendency to escalate the conflict with Iran with social media posts on Saturdays and Sundays that in turn has driven a lot of market volatility.