Axios

The downfall of Spirit Airlines is casting a spotlight on the future of its budget carrier rival, Frontier Airlines, which is facing many of the same challenges.

Why it matters: The jet fuel price spike was the last straw for Spirit — which ceased operations early Saturday — and it's posing a serious challenge to Frontier, as well.

Even with rising inflation, uncertainty around the war in Iran and surging oil prices, advertising-based companies continue to forecast strong growth, thanks to broad optimism in the markets fueled by AI.

Why it matters: For now, forecasters aren't baking macroeconomic chaos — including possible constraints on the supply chain — into their projections, but that could change if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

The U.S. is using force in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomacy in New York in an effort to break Tehran's chokehold on the vital shipping lane.

Why it matters: Iran has already shown it's willing to respond with force, putting the two countries on the verge of a return to full-fledged war.

The United Arab Emirates reported that four missiles were fired toward its territory from Iran on Monday, and that it was actively engaging with another "missile and drone attack."

• There were also fires reported at a fuel facility in the UAE and on ships off its coast. Iran has not claimed responsibility for any of the apparent attacks.

Why it matters: This would be the first time Iran attacked a Gulf state since the ceasefire was announced nearly a month ago. The U.S. and Iran may now be on the precipice of a return to war.

Spirit Airlines is dead, but the finger-pointing is very much alive.

• Trump administration officials spent the weekend blaming former President Biden, whose Justice Department successfully blocked JetBlue from buying Spirit for $3.8 billion.
• Spirit told the White House to look in the mirror, saying its insolvency was sparked by an Iran war that's caused jet fuel prices to spike.

Why it matters: Around 17,000 people just lost their jobs, and thousands of passengers found themselves stranded.

President Trump was fed up with the "no deal, no war" stalemate in Iran. The operation he ordered to change that dynamic could ultimately lead back to war.

• "The president wants action. He doesn't want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal," a senior U.S. official told Axios.

The intrigue: Trump was presented with a plan on Thursday night to send naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to open it by force. At the last minute, he opted for a more cautious approach, at least initially.

A fully closed Strait of Hormuz was long seen as unthinkable — and unmanageable if it happened — based on past modeling and interviews with energy experts.

Why it matters: That conventional wisdom underscores just how unprecedented today's closure is — and how little playbook exists for what could come next.

President Trump said the U.S. Navy will start guiding ships from foreign countries through the Strait of Hormuz from Monday and warned that if Iran tries to disrupt the process, the American military will use force.

Why it matters: This move that Trump called "Project Freedom" is the most significant step by his administration to try and reopen the key strait since Iran shut it down early in the war.

President Trump told reporters on Saturday that he could order renewed military action against Iran if it "misbehaves."

Why it matters: While the U.S. and Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, Trump is also seriously considering ordering new military action against Iran to try and break the current stalemate.

The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC. Saudi Arabia is ending its splashiest foreign sports venture. The two U.S. allies are in the midst of a messy divorce, even as both face fire from Iran.

Why it matters: One year after President Trump's grand tour of the Gulf, the region's vision of a geopolitically stable post-oil future — powered by tourism, AI and American capital — has taken a major blow.