Canadians' demand for U.S. travel is cratering
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Canadians' desire to visit the U.S. is absolutely tanking, new data suggests.
Why it matters: President Trump's tariffs and insistence that Canada should become the 51st American state is fueling a remarkable rally-round-the-flag effect. Canadian patriotism is skyrocketing alongside disdain for all things American throughout the Great White North.
Driving the news: Advance bookings for Canada-U.S. flights in April-September are down over 70% compared to this time last year, per aviation data firm OAG.
- "This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute," writes OAG chief analyst John Grant.
- Airlines are also reducing transborder capacity — a strong signal that they, too, are seeing (or at least predicting) less demand.
Yes, but: At least one airline is calling OAG's data into question.
- The numbers are "not reflective of Air Canada's booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us," an Air Canada spokesperson told travel news site The Points Guy (TPG).
- Yet the spokesperson confirmed there's been a "softening" in demand, and the airline has trimmed capacity accordingly.
Threat level: A mere 10% drop in Canadian visitors could cost U.S. businesses as much as $2.1 billion in revenue, TPG notes.
The big picture: Airline stocks are suffering mightily amid economic uncertainty and the prospect of continued trade wars.
- Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines are all down around 30-40% so far this year.
- Several major airlines, including Delta and American, previously warned of soft first quarters amid weakening consumer demand.
What's next: Reluctance to visit the U.S. this summer may not be a strictly Canadian phenomenon, with worries about political strife and detainment upon entry an increasingly popular theme on travel message boards and chat groups in recent weeks.
- If those fears materialize into less demand, there could be big consequnces for the entire $1.2 trillion U.S. travel industry.
