Scoop: Surge in vaccine skepticism splits Republicans ahead of 2026
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HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. arrives to testify before the Senate Finance Committee. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
New polling suggests Republican voters are three times more likely than Democrats to support Florida's move to end vaccine requirements, according to findings first shared with Axios.
Why it matters: "MAHA" supporters have proved to be a powerful new GOP voting bloc. But some Republicans are distancing themselves, warning of party division and the political danger of embracing the vaccine hesitancy of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- "I disagree with what the Surgeon General in Florida is trying to do," Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who was an orthopedic surgeon, told Axios. "Vaccines are good. They help children."
- Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), also a physician, called the Florida policy "a horrible idea," arguing the polio, MMR and Tdap vaccines "are good vaccines," though "the rest of them were up for debate."
Driving the news: Florida's recent decision to end vaccine requirements, including for schools, has stirred up new controversy as Kennedy continues to face blowback over his actions as head of HHS.
- Kennedy added five members to serve on his handpicked vaccine advisory panel on Monday, days ahead of a key meeting on COVID-19 shots.
- Democrats are already turning up the political pressure. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) tried to pass a resolution on Tuesday condemning anti-vaccine policies. It was blocked by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
Between the lines: A GOP campaign operative said President Trump's vaccine position is more popular than Florida's, arguing the COVID vaccine was "unique" and "political."
- The source warned that "going after all vaccines will let Democrats make campaign ads blaming us for measles outbreaks."
Zoom in: Trump seemed to have some concerns about the move in Florida, telling reporters this month, "I think we have to be very careful. You have some vaccines that are so amazing."
- Exactly half (50%) of Republican respondents said they at least "somewhat" supported the Florida move, according to polling this month for the Senate GOP conference that was first obtained by Axios.
- The same was true for 32% of independents and just 17% of Democrats.
- At the same time, 60% of Republicans agreed with the statement: "The benefits of childhood vaccines far outweigh any risks, and they are essential for protecting children and communities from serious diseases."
Zoom out: The results are roughly in line with new findings from a KFF survey, which showed majorities of parents in favor of the usual childhood vaccine regimen, with less confidence in seasonal vaccines — especially for COVID.
By the numbers: Overall, 61% of respondents to the GOP poll were opposed to Florida's decision to undo all vaccine mandates.
- Regardless of party, respondents were most likely to trust their personal doctor or health care provider when it comes to vaccine safety and effectiveness.
- Democrats were almost as likely to trust the CDC and federal agencies (37%), while the runner-up for Republicans and independents was their "own research" — 25% and 22% respectively.
Between the lines: When asked if benefits outweigh the risks of various specific vaccines, only for COVID did a plurality of Republicans (49%) say the risks were greater.
- Flu and the HPV vaccines also saw higher levels of skepticism from Republicans and independents. One in 4 Republicans said the risks outweighed the benefits for the flu vaccine.
- 50% said the benefits outweighed the risks for both flu and HPV.
Methodology: The online survey was conducted among national registered voters by Gray House from Sept. 6 through Sept. 8, 2025.
- There were 1,443 respondents and the margin of error is +/- 2.6%.
