Trump's $2,000 tariff checks would cost $450 billion, analysis finds
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President Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office. Photo: Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images
President Trump's promised $2,000 tariff checks would probably cost $450 billion but provide small boosts in both economic growth and employment, per a new analysis of the proposal.
Why it matters: At that price the dividend would wipe out more than a year's worth of tariff income, leaving nothing for the president's other promised uses of the money, like paying down debt and bailing out farmers.
Catch up quick: After months of bringing up the idea, Trump and his economic team have been talking about it more actively in recent days, as the president tries to apply pressure on the Supreme Court to uphold his entire tariff program.
- The president told reporters in the Oval Office Monday night that the checks would start going out in mid-2026 — though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has cautioned that Congress would have to pass legislation authorizing them, an uncertain outcome.
- The push also comes amid a mounting affordability crisis that's already been politically problematic for Republicans.
- The proposed timing would put checks in voters' hands just before the crucial 2026 midterm elections.
By the numbers: The Yale Budget Lab released an analysis Monday night, finding that the promised checks would cost about $450 billion, assuming that the $2,000 checks went to every individual in the country with an income under $100,000.
- The government collected $195 billion in tariff revenue in fiscal 2025 and is on pace for about $420 billion in tariff revenue in fiscal 2026.
Between the lines: Yale estimated a 0.3 percentage point boost to GDP in 2026 from the checks, and a 0.15 percentage point increase in employment.
- Those effects would fade over time, researchers said.
The intrigue: Yale also modeled just a very slight increase in inflation from the checks, despite fears that another stimulus-like payment would have a similar impact to the inflation-fueling "stimmy" of the Biden era.
- The lab estimated inflation would increase by less than 0.1 percentage points in coming years with the checks.
What to watch: The next steps remain unclear; the Supreme Court decision is still pending and Congress is tied up with other matters, like a looming vote on the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Go deeper: Here's what needs to happen for the $2,000 tariff checks to become real
