Trump peace plan for Ukraine includes NATO-style security guarantee

The intrigue: The 28-point plan U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll presented to Zelensky on Thursday, which was also obtained by Axios, says simply that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees."

• But alongside it, the U.S. presented the Ukrainians with another draft agreement.

Zoom in: It states that any future "significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community," and the U.S. and its allies will respond accordingly, including through military force.

• The document includes lines for signatures from Ukraine, the U.S., the EU, NATO and Russia. A senior White House official said Russia was briefed on the draft, but it's unclear if President Vladimir Putin's signature will ultimately be required.
• The security guarantee would be for an initial 10 years, and could be renewed by mutual consent.
• A senior White House official and another source with direct knowledge confirmed the document's legitimacy. The senior official said the proposal will have to be discussed with European partners and could still change. Elements of the proposal were reported by the Wall Street Journal.
• The official said the Trump administration views the proposed security guarantee as a "big win" for Zelensky and for Ukraine's long-term security.

Friction point: Zelensky now has a proposal in his possession that would require him to cede even more Ukrainian territory than Russia currently controls and see Russia welcomed back into the community of nations — with sanctions lifted and amnesty for war crimes.

• But it would also give him a stronger guarantee against further Russian aggression than previously seemed likely while Trump was in the White House.
• Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff, who has taken the lead in drafting the 28-point plan, discussed the proposed security guarantee with Zelensky's national security adviser Rustem Umerov over the weekend, and it was shared in writing with Zelensky on Thursday, the U.S. official said.
• The plan could open Trump up to backlash with his America First allies, as it would effectively commit the U.S. military to defending Ukraine in the event of another war.

The draft text

This Framework establishes the conditions for an armistice between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security assurance modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, adapted to the circumstances of this conflict and the interests of the United States and its European partners.

1. The United States affirms that a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice line into Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In such an event, the President of the United States shall, in exercise of constitutional authority and after immediate consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners, determine the measures necessary to restore security. These measures may include armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions, and other steps judged appropriate. A joint assessment mechanism with NATO and Ukraine will evaluate any claimed breach.
2. NATO members, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and Finland, affirm that Ukraine's security is integral to European stability and commit to act in concert with the United States in responding to any qualifying violation, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture.
3. This Framework enters into force upon signature and shall remain valid for ten years, renewable by mutual agreement. A Joint Monitoring Commission led by European partners with U.S. participation will oversee compliance.

Signed:

• Ukraine
• The Russian Federation
• The United States of America
• European Union
• NATO

Breaking it down

• In addition to the security guarantee, the 28-point plan calls for a demilitarized zone between Ukrainian and Russian-held territory in the east.
• Russia would take control of all of the Donbas region, while the lines of control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would mostly be frozen.
• No NATO troops would be on Ukrainian soil and Ukraine's military would be capped at 600,000 personnel — smaller than at present (~800,000-850,000 troops) but much larger than it had previously been in peacetime (~250,000).

Go deeper: Read the 28-point plan

Dave Lawler contributed reporting.