Copper's emerging global needs include AI, defense and robots: study
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AI and military needs could worsen what's already shaping up as a looming copper supply gap in coming decades, new analysis finds.
Why it matters: Copper supply is foundational to energy transition including EVs and renewables — even as traditional uses like construction and machinery grow, as you can see above.
- The S&P Global study is a granular look at the market that includes incremental additions from AI data centers and increased power to fuel them.
The big picture: "We live in a world of electrification," S&P Vice Chairman Dan Yergin said in an interview.
- "Copper is either the enabler or the obstacle to electrification, because it is the metal of electrification," he said.
The intrigue: The AI boom is an important but hardly dominant driver, the report notes.
- "AI and data centers is a key new demand vector given data centers' electricity intensity, direct copper use, and rapid growth in the industry," it states.
- Over the very long term, development of humanoid robots "heavily wired with copper" are another "demand vector."
Threat level: The report dives into the need for more investment in mining and recycling — and barriers to making that happen.
- "Without improvement in above ground risks and significant new investment, a 10 million metric ton supply shortfall is projected by 2040, as existing mines decline and new projects lag behind demand," the study states.
- These "above ground" risks include long permitting timelines, workforce challenges, shifting regulations, tariffs and more.
What we're watching: It offers various recommendations for avoiding a supply shortfall, touching on areas like permitting, diversifying smelting and refining capacity and lots more.
