"The order never came": Behind the scenes of Trump's Iran pullback
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Trump at the White House on Jan. 15. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
On Wednesday morning, dozens of top military, political and diplomatic officials in Washington and across the Middle East believed U.S. bombs would be dropping in Tehran within hours.
- By that afternoon, it was clear the order was not coming, two U.S. officials said. America had stood down.
The big picture: Over the past week, President Trump has at various times been leaning toward striking the Iranian regime over its violent crackdown on protesters — thousands of whom are believed to have been killed.
- But with insufficient military hardware in the region, warnings from allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia, concern among top aides about the implications and effectiveness of the strike options, and secret backchannel talks with the Iranians, he chose not to pull the trigger.
This account of Trump's decision-making over the past ten days is based on interviews with four U.S. officials, two Israeli officials and two other sources with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes discussions.
Early January: This is getting serious
While Trump first threatened on Jan. 2 to intervene if the regime "violently kills peaceful protesters," it would be several days before his administration began to see the demonstrations as a pivotal moment for Iran.
- With limited visibility into the events on the ground, U.S. intelligence initially assessed that the protests lacked sufficient energy to significantly threaten the regime.
- That changed on Jan. 8, when the protests in Tehran and other cities surged in intensity.
On Friday, Jan. 9, Vice President Vance chaired the first high-level meeting at the White House to discuss, in detail, a possible U.S. military response, according to U.S. officials.
- By that time, the Iranian security forces had started killing scores of protesters, and Iran was plunged into a total internet blackout.
- Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reached out to Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss a diplomatic path to de-escalation. Several days later, this backchannel would play a significant role in Trump's decision making.
Jan. 13: Trump presented with strike options
On Tuesday evening, after returning from a speech in Detroit, Trump entered the Situation Room to be briefed on military options.
- Trump received intelligence briefings in the days leading up to the meeting and had been regularly updated by Vance and Rubio, but this was the first time he officially chaired a meeting on the protests.
- By then, it seemed the brutal crackdown was having some effect in suppressing the protests. But Trump's public threats had set an expectation for action inside the U.S. and created alarm in the region.
Trump was presented with several military options, including strikes on numerous Iranian regime targets around the country launched from U.S. warships and submarines.
- Trump narrowed those options and asked for preparations to be completed. A U.S. official said a strike plan was ready after Trump spoke with his senior team on Tuesday, but the meeting ended with no clear decision.
Jan 14: Trump pulls back
U.S. officials said that on Wednesday, there was a serious expectation inside the administration — and belief in capitals across the Middle East, including Iran — that Trump would "green-light" the strike.
- U.S troops began evacuating from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the Navy's Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. The Iranian regime was convinced a U.S. attack was coming and issued a notice closing its airspace.
- "It wasn't fake or a ruse," a U.S. official said.
- Attention turned to a crucial meeting Trump planned to convene with his top national security team on Wednesday afternoon.
But hours passed with no word from the White House. Trump had decided to hold off.
- "He wanted to continue monitoring the situation," a White House official said.
- "It was really close. The military was in a position to do something really fast, but the order didn't come," a second U.S. official said.
In a call earlier in the day, one surprising voice had urged caution: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
- He told Trump that Israel was not ready to defend itself from Iran's likely retaliation, especially since the U.S. didn't have enough assets in the region to help Israel intercept Iranian missiles and drones.
- In addition, Netanyahu felt the current U.S. plan was not strong enough and wouldn't be effective, one of the prime minister's advisers said.
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman also spoke to Trump and expressed deep concern about the consequences for regional stability, according to a source with knowledge of the matter.
While it's hard to get inside Trump's head, several U.S. officials said Netanyahu's warning and briefings from Trump's team about threats to U.S. forces from Iranian retaliation were significant factors.
- "Nobody convinced me. I convinced myself," Trump told reporters on Friday.
Finger still near the button
One factor that loomed particularly large was the fact that, since the last clash with Iran in June, many U.S. forces and assets had been moved to the Caribbean and East Asia.
- Some officials said "the theater was not ready" and this limited the options available to the U.S. — both for an attack and for the scenario of a wider conflict if Iran retaliated.
- "We sort of missed the window," a source with knowledge said.
- A White House official pushed back on these claims and said the U.S. has enough assets in the region "to execute on many of the options presented to the President, if he were to choose them."
Another factor in Trump's decision-making was the messages he was sending and receiving through a diplomatic backchannel between Witkoff and Araghchi.
- On Wednesday morning, Araghchi texted Witkoff committing to hold off on planned executions of protesters "and stop the killing," according to two U.S. officials.
- Around 3pm ET, shortly after the meeting where he decided not to order an attack, Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office and revealed the message he'd received from the Iranians.
At this point, U.S. officials say, it was clear that Trump was moving toward de-escalation, at least in the near-term.
- On Thursday, Trump admitted the messages he received from the Iranians had a significant impact on his decision.
- "It had an impact but it wasn't the only reason. The president is guided by his superb instincts," a White House official said.
What they're saying: "Over the past week, there has been a flurry of reports fueled by anonymous sources speculating about President Trump's thinking on Iran. The truth is, nobody knows what President Trump will do with respect to Iran beside the President himself," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios.
- "As always, the President has many options and will make decisions in the best interest of America and the world."
What to watch: While Trump has held off on the strike for now, a military operation against Iran is still very much on the table. U.S. officials say another decision point could come within weeks.
Go deeper: Iran's exiled crown prince implores Trump to strike regime
