Businesses win big as Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs

• If the Treasury Department is forced to issue refunds, it would total about $120 billion, according to Capital Economics estimates.

Catch up quick: The Supreme Court on Friday overturned Trump's global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, saying that the president lacked the legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose them.

• "The Supreme Court's decision is welcome news for businesses and consumers," Neil Bradley, chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement, calling for "swift refunds of the impermissible tariffs" and a "reset" on tariff policy.
• Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten called on the administration to use this moment to "recalibrate its approach to tariffs, focusing on targeted actions to address specific unfair trade practices and national security concerns."

The impact: Stocks turned positive after the ruling, encouraged by the prospect of lower costs and possible refunds — though the somewhat muted response may indicate that investors had already priced in such an outcome or anticipate replacement tariffs.

• Prediction market traders had a pro-tariff ruling at only about 25%.
• "I think there was an underlying expectation that this was going to happen," says Juan Pellerano-Rendón, a logistics expert at commerce advisory Swap, which has been helping companies navigate tariffs.

What they're saying: "America's small businesses are grateful that the U.S. Supreme Court has placed limitations on a president's ability to impose tariffs," Small Business Majority CEO John Arensmeyer said in a statement. "This decision is critically important because small businesses can do very little to avoid the rapidly rising costs of goods that result from tariffs."

• "We urge the lower court to ensure a seamless process to refund the tariffs to U.S. importers," National Retail Federation executive VP of government relations David French said in a statement. "The refunds will serve as an economic boost and allow companies to reinvest in their operations, their employees and their customers."
• The Retail Industry Leaders Association said in a statement that the decision "opens the door for the Administration to engage industry more closely on trade policy" and create the "stability and predictability American retailers and consumers need."
• The National Restaurant Association — which said tariffs strained more than 60% of restaurant operators last year — urged the administration to exempt food and beverage imports from any new duties.

Follow the money: The prospect of tariff refunds is tantalizing for businesses, but they aren't counting on it, Pellerano-Rendón said in an interview.

• Some companies sued over tariffs in anticipation of pursuing refunds, such as Costco.
• "I would say no business owner is genuinely expecting a refund at this point, just knowing how this administration has managed tariffs, how they've been preparing for this exact scenario and knowing how arduous the process will likely be to actually receive those refunds," Pellerano-Rendón said.

The intrigue: If businesses are throwing a party, many are doing so quietly — possibly out of fear of angering a vengeful president.

• In May, Trump publicly threatened Walmart after it warned tariffs would force price hikes, demanding the retailer "EAT THE TARIFFS" instead.
• The White House also blasted Amazon over a report it was considering highlighting tariff-related price impacts.
• Reps for Walmart, Target, Costco and Amazon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

What's next: Businesses aren't out of the woods. The White House has signaled plans to reimpose new tariffs using different legal justification.

• "This could trigger another round of exemption requests and international trade negotiations, potentially prolonging the tariff rate uncertainty and resulting [in] sourcing paralysis well into 2026," according to Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, supply chain industry practice lead at Moody's.
• "The question is whether the administration wants to pursue this path or whether they want to use the SCOTUS ruling to pivot away from tariffs in a midterm election oriented around consumer affordability concerns," Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield tells Axios.

What we're watching: The refund fight. With the tariffs struck down, companies are expected to seek billions back — though the Supreme Court offered no roadmap for how that process would unfold.