Trump dominates Republican midterm ads for House, Senate
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The vast majority of Republican midterm advertisements for House and Senate candidates are about President Trump, according to Axios analysis of AdImpact data on ad airings between Jan. 1, 2025, to Feb. 18, 2026.
Why it matters: As primary season gets underway, candidates are focused on distinguishing themselves from rivals within their parties.
- For Republicans, Trump has proven a more formidable message than the economy.
Zoom in: The data shows Democrats are significantly more focused on economic issues, such as inflation and taxes, in their ads compared with Republicans.
- Not surprisingly, their ads are also much more likely to mention social welfare issues, such as health care and education.
- Republicans, on the other hand, are much more likely to reference immigration and LGTBQ issues.
Flashback: The Democrats' focus on health care is notable and echoes the down-ballot message strategy they used to retake the house in 2018.
The big picture: Despite U.S. actions overseas dominating headlines, midterm messaging for both parties barely acknowledges foreign policy issues.
- That's typically the case for elections, as the economy tends to be what moves the needle the most for voters.
- But the AdImpact data shows just how much candidates are distancing themselves from complicated national security issues that don't hit home directly.
Between the lines: It's notable that many Republican ads over the past year have focused on immigration as a key message given that recent polling presented to White House officials suggests Trump's immigration policies aren't resonating with voters ahead of the midterms.
What to watch: Messaging strategies will likely shift after the primaries, which kick off today in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.
