Texas warning signs: 4 takeaways from the first primaries of 2026
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An attendee wears a "Talarico For Texas" shirt during a Texas primary election night event. Photo: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Voters are on the verge of sending multiple House incumbents packing but gave four-term Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) hope that he can defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a runoff in May.
Why it matters: The GOP's worst nightmare, in which Paxton led Cornyn or even defeated him outright Tuesday in the first primary elections of the 2026 midterms, didn't happen.
- National Republicans are concerned that Paxton, a conservative firebrand, could lose in the general election — or at least force them to spend money on a red state.
- Texas' Democratic Senate primary has its own controversy: Rep. Jasmine Crockett claimed voters were "disenfranchised" and vowed to sue over confusion on polling places in Dallas County. AP called the race for state Rep. James Talarico early Wednesday.
4 takeaways
1) The most expensive primary ever gets an encore: Cornyn showed surprise strength, setting up 2+ months of an expensive, nasty primary race before a May 26 runoff against Paxton.
- Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) finished a distant third.
- Now Cornyn and Paxton will compete for President Trump's endorsement — a priceless prize in a primary that has already cost the Republican Party close to $100 million.
2) Populist seminarian leads anti-Trump brawler: Crockett highlighted Trump's insults of her and boasted she "drives the president crazy." Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, talked about winning over Trump voters and zeroed in on promises like standing up to billionaires and taking on Big Pharma.
- Former Vice President Harris, eyeing a 2028 White House run, recorded a robocall for Crockett calling her a "fighter." It wasn't enough to push Crockett over the finish line.
- Talarico and his allies outspent Crockett and her supporters $25 million to $5 million on ads, according to AdImpact.
3) Warning signs for incumbents, older reps: Texas redistricting contributed to GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw's loss to state Rep. Steve Toth.
- It complicated life for Democratic Rep. Al Green, 78, whose former district was turned into a GOP safe seat. That forced him to run in the neighboring 18th, where a runoff looks possible against Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee, 37.
- A runoff also looks likely for Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas), who trails former Rep. Colin Allred by double digits. Allred is trying to reclaim his old seat after a failed Senate bid.
- In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, is narrowly leading county commissioner Nida Allam, 32, in a race that is still too close to call.
4) Huge Latino voter surge for Democrats: In heavily Hispanic counties along the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic turnout was up big.
- In Texas' 34th district, which Trump won 52%-48% in 2024, roughly twice as many voters participated in the Democratic primary compared to the Republican primary.
Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect AP projecting that Texas state Rep. James Talarico beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
