Renewable energy gets an Iran war boost

Driving the news: Very early data disputes the conventional wisdom that coal — the most carbon dioxide-emitting fuel — is a winner, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research group.

• Instead, global power generation from fossil fuels was down in the first month of the war.
• Solar and wind power was up, as renewables offset more of the decline in gas-fired power than coal did, writes Lauri Myllyvirta, the group's lead analyst.

State of play: Only Japan and South Korea saw "significant increases" in coal-fired generation.

• India and South Africa were among the nations to register big drops.
• Germany and other EU nations, Japan, the U.K. and India saw year-over-year jumps in wind or solar in March.

What we're watching: The scope of efforts to swap out imported oil and gas with homegrown sources — some clean, some not — and cleantech imports that don't rely on risky trade routes.

• The outcome will depend on prices, but also on how much energy-importing nations remain spooked about the stability of the global oil and gas trade even after the war ends.
• "Any domestic energy will be prioritized," Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of multinational energy giant TotalEnergies, told Axios' Amy Harder in an interview. He includes renewables on the list.

What they're saying: "This thing is like a giant energy security Rorschach test," said Ethan Zindler of the clean energy research firm BloombergNEF.

• Some coal-rich nations, like Indonesia, will look to their domestic supplies.
• But other countries "don't have a tremendous amount of stuff underground that they can just extract at a low cost," he said in an interview.
• "And so for them, energy security is going to ultimately [be] more about importing clean energy equipment."

Zoom out: Pillars of the bull case for cleantech include...

• South Korea's president calling for faster renewables uptake, France's prime minister talking up renewables and nuclear, and other examples the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air cites.
• Zindler notes that clean energy markets, solar in particular, have a substantial amount of manufacturing overcapacity — much of it in China — that's pushing down prices.
• Even in the U.S. — which is feeling less economic pain than many nations and has a very pro-fossil fuel White House — higher gasoline prices appear to be creating more interest in electric vehicles on car-shopping sites.

Yes, but: The analysis notes an uptick in March coal-fired generation in China, by far the world's largest user of the fuel.

What's next: EU officials — stung by roughly $26 billion in higher fossil fuel import costs since the war began — will propose new clean electrification plans.

Reality check: Memories can be short, especially if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly. And reorienting energy economies carries its own costs.

• In the near term, the research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie says the disruption is indeed "triggering a rebound in global thermal coal demand" as countries scramble amid constrained natural gas shipments.
• "[T]ightening LNG supply and elevated prices are accelerating fuel switching back to coal" despite decarbonization commitments by Asian countries, analyst Sushmita Vazirani said in a statement.
• And President Trump, who uses U.S. oil and gas for trade leverage, is promoting even higher exports.
• And some analysts argue it would take years of high oil and gas prices — not weeks or months — to create a seismic shift.

The bottom line: Zindler offered a hedged prediction that the conflict will ultimately support greater uptake of renewables, batteries and EVs.

• "In countries where they can produce and use more fossil fuels, in the short run, I think there's a good chance that they will," he said.
• In the long run, however, "it's positive for the [clean energy] industry, and then probably positive for climate," he said.

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Editor's note: This story has been updated to note China's increase in coal-fired generation.