Anthropic IPO storylines to watch
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Anthropic officially started its IPO clock yesterday, filing a confidential registration statement with the SEC.
- It could be one of three American companies to go public this year at a valuation of more than $1 trillion, something that has never before happened even once on a U.S. exchange.
Five storylines to watch:
1. Clubhouse leader: Anthropic has pole position in the AI "race," ahead of OpenAI and xAI owner SpaceX, thanks largely to its early focus on enterprise customers.
- The lead could be fleeting, particularly with Google announcing plans to raise $80 billion to bolster its own AI buildout.
- It's unlikely to be a winner-take-all market, as most institutional investors will effectively index Big AI's circular economy, but momentum matters at the margins.
2. Corporate cutback: Some companies already are having second-thoughts about their AI spend, and are investigating cheaper models or more deliberate choices around which tokens to use for which tasks.
- This is where Anthropic's enterprise focus could become a double-edged sword.
3. Market timing: Yesterday's confidential filing means that Anthropic could go public in mid-August — if it were to follow the SpaceX model.
- August is usually a dead zone for IPOs, as lots of bankers and investors are on summer holidays, but Anthropic is one of the few companies that can go public in any market at any time.
- That said, don't pay too much attention to Anthropic getting out before OpenAI (assuming it does so). Wall Street already knows both of these stories very well, and OpenAI is likely to have flipped its S-1 public by the time that Anthropic prices — allowing investors to make their own comparative judgments.
- Both companies may benefit in a post-public SpaceX world, because investors will already have seen new index inclusion rules in action.
4. PBC play: Anthropic is a public benefit corporation, which means it's required to balance shareholder interests with "responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity."
- This is a bigger deal than OpenAI's nonprofit foundation or Google's mantra of "Don't be evil," and could cause some investors to discount the stock. Particularly if the PBC status returns to the forefront, as it arguably did during Anthropic's recent dustup with the Pentagon (which remains unresolved).
5. D.C. doings: President Trump still hasn't issued his executive order on AI, which could require companies like Anthropic to share new models with government regulators before release.
- Democrats, meanwhile, have an ear to growing populist discontent with AI consequences, and could retake Congress just months after Anthropic goes public.
- Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) yesterday proposed the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund that would receive half the share capital of Big AI companies, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) proposed an excise tax on data centers.
