Wall Street wants to trade AI compute like oil
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Ornn, an Andreessen Horowitz-backed startup, raised a $33 million seed round to build a marketplace for trading the computing power that underpins today's AI boom, similar to what exists for oil traders.
Why it matters: Investors increasingly want to trade compute like a commodity, betting it could make the historically expensive AI buildout more sustainable and efficient.
Catch up quick: Commodity markets let companies use futures contracts to lock in prices for volatile raw materials.
- Think airlines locking in jet fuel prices or manufacturers hedging metals prices, which helps them reduce the risk of price fluctuations.
- But AI companies don't have an equivalent market for compute, a problem the 20-something founders of Ornn and a growing number of exchanges are trying to solve.
- So far, AI companies have tried to lock up supply and prices through long-term pre-purchasing agreements.
Follow the money: Goldman Sachs estimates that between 2026 and 2031 roughly $7.6 trillion will be invested globally in building up compute, power and data centers.
- But the financial infrastructure needed to sustain that level of spend "has not yet been built," the bank adds.
- Companies like Ornn want to help build that infrastructure.
Yes, but: Unlike oil, compute isn't a static commodity.
- Each new generation of Nvidia chips promises better price performance, which changes the value of older chips. Any benchmark has to chase a depreciating asset.
- Compute also isn't a tangible good in the same way oil is: GPU capacity can't be stored, so unused compute disappears, making it harder to build standardized contracts and pricing around it.
What they're saying: "We want to make financing AI way more seamless," Wayne Nelms, Ornn's chief technology officer, told Axios.
- His co-founder and CEO, Kush Bavaria, sees this as part of America's potential advantage over China and added that the company does not work with Chinese AI labs.
Zoom in: Lenders can use Ornn for benchmarking, while buyers and sellers of compute can use it to hedge.
- It's also helpful for price discovery: Ornn has already integrated with Bloomberg Terminal and other data providers, which lets traders check GPU prices through the tools they already use.
- Ornn is able to operate under a de minimis exemption, while larger firms are still working through regulatory approval.
- Pending regulatory approval, CME plans to launch compute futures tied to Silicon Data's benchmark, and the Intercontinental Exchange plans GPU compute futures tied to Ornn's pricing index.
The bottom line: Compute may never trade like oil, but with $7.6 trillion on the line, Wall Street is going to try anyway.
