Dems turning more GOP Senate strongholds into midterm battlegrounds

• Republicans expect all six states to revert to their MAGA mean. But they're not betting on it.
• The fact that they're still in play has turned the midterms into a game of chess, giving Democrats more openings to attack — and leaving Republicans with more pieces to defend.

What we're hearing: While you've been at the beach, we've been at the bar talking to operatives in both parties. Here's what we're hearing:

• Democrats are within striking distance in Iowa, Alaska and Texas. They're longer shots in Mississippi and Kansas, while an independent candidate in Nebraska refuses to go away.
• Democrats' clearest path to 51 starts with holding Michigan and picking up North Carolina and Ohio. Maine is probably next on their list. Then they need just one more.

Driving the news: As of Thursday afternoon, the Texas and Iowa Senate races are rated as "toss-ups" by Cook Political Report.

• They were "lean Republican" previously.
• That makes six GOP seats that are now toss-ups or lean Democratic.

Ohio: Trump won the once quintessential battleground the past three elections, and its governor and senators are all Republicans.

• But former Sen. Sherrod Brown is mounting a comeback under two very different conditions from 2024: Trump isn't on the ballot and crypto PACs aren't bludgeoning him with $40 million (yet).
• Brown led Husted 53% to 45% in a recent Fox News survey — a margin unchanged since June.
• One major issue that could cost Husted the election: AI data centers.

Alaska: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) worked hard to recruit former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who has already won statewide twice. Complicating matters for GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, there's another Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

• Peltola is running neck-and-neck with Sen. Sullivan in a state where ranked-choice voting can reward candidates with crossover appeal — a formula she used to win her House seat in 2022.
• Senate Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Schumer, has already reserved $12 million in TV and digital ads.

Iowa: A Democrat hasn't won an Iowa presidential or Senate race since then-President Obama in 2012.

• But the farm state has been battered by soaring fertilizer and diesel costs as well as Trump's tariffs, putting Republicans on defense.
• Schumer got a head start with his preferred candidate in state Rep. Josh Turek. Adding to Democratic enthusiasm is gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand, whose strength at the top of the ticket could produce coattails. SMP is in for $30 million.

Texas: The state has broken Democrats' hearts so many times it deserves its own Ella Fitzgerald song.

• But Trump's Hispanic support in the Rio Grande Valley has fallen off, and Republicans dropped close to $20 million in negative ads on Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary runoff alone.
• Republicans spent the last year warning that a Paxton nomination would be far more difficult to defend than if Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) had held on.
• Meanwhile, Democrat James Talarico has dominated the fundraising game and multiple early polls have him narrowly leading Paxton.

Kansas: Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is making Sen. Roger Marshall's (R-Kansas) reelection less certain.

• Cook Political Report this month moved the race from "solid R" to "likely R" and SMP has recent polling with Marshall up by only one point.
• Schumer has been talking up Kansas as a state to watch. "Kansas is a good example of why you can't paint every state with the same brush," he told Punchbowl News last week. "This guy is a minister, a moderate Methodist. He's a seasoned politician."
• While Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, the current Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is proof the party can win statewide.

Mississippi: Democrat Scott Colom is on a mission to make the Mississippi seat competitive.

• He outraised Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the second quarter, with a $766,000 haul.
• Schumer told Semafor earlier this month that Hyde-Smith was "extremely weak" and Colom is a "tough prosecutor who's won elections in a tough district."
• Democrats see the SNAP and Medicaid cuts in Trump's "big, beautiful bill" as especially powerful issues in the state.

Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn is making another run at flipping a Senate seat after he forced Republicans to scramble to protect Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024.

• Recent polls show Osborn within striking distance of Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.).
• But Ricketts' campaign has dropped over $5 million in ads since July 1, per AdImpact — vs. less than $500,000 from Osborn's campaign. Even Osborn's top supporter, Working Class Majority PAC, spent just $1.6 million in that time.

The bottom line: When he took over the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) warned senators in safe seats not to expect any bailouts. His plan was to put red states away early and use the party's money to go on offense.

• Instead, Republicans are spending the summer defending territory they typically don't worry about.
• At the start of the cycle, Cook Political Report called Democrats' path to a Senate majority "herculean." Last week, it declared the battle for the Senate a toss-up.