A stunning U.S. gas build-out is coming — maybe
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A new report underscores two truths about U.S. plans for gas-fired power plants: the numbers are stunning, yet stunningly speculative.
Why it matters: The AI boom is driving proposals for massive projects to supply data centers and other needs.
- The ballooning pipeline is bringing fresh fears about carbon emissions and localized air pollution.
- It's also a big challenge for regulators and planners.
"It is nearly impossible nowadays to guess what is a pie in the sky proposal, and what has a real chance of getting built," said report author Jenny Martos of Global Energy Monitor.
Stunning stat: The amount of U.S. capacity somewhere in the development pipeline doubled in the first half of 2026, per Global Energy Monitor's analysis.
- A whopping 189 gigawatts is planned for on-site data centers through the first half of 2026, roughly doubling (!) the pipeline at year-end 2025.
Driving the news: Overall, the U.S. pipeline has soared to 378 gigawatts, per the nonprofit that closely tracks projects internationally.
- More concretely, projects under construction climbed 76% in the first half of 2026 to 52 GW, around twice what China is currently building.
- A gigawatt can power roughly 750,000 U.S. homes.
Reality check: If all the 378 GW on the drawing board become reality, the U.S. fleet would grow by two-thirds.
- But the report tracks everything from construction to projects in much earlier stages that may or may not ultimately happen.
- "Pre-construction" and "announced" projects together account for about 86% of the U.S. pipeline.
State of play: The report highlights big questions. For instance, two-thirds of the capacity in development globally hasn't yet named a turbine or engine manufacturer.
What they're saying: "The directional signal here accurately reflects the near-term trends in power development to meet rising demand, [but] the long-term projections are highly uncertain," Jeff Dennis, executive director of the Electricity Customer Alliance, said via email.
- Dennis, a power market veteran, cites supply chain constraints, speculative data center projects and other factors.
Zoom in: Texas has by far the biggest pipeline of projects somewhere in the development queue, far surpassing the rest of the top 10.
- It includes the 7.65 gigawatt, Amazon-backed GW Ranch proposal.
The intrigue: Historically, around 30% of proposed U.S. gas-fired projects reach commercial operation, per Michael Thomas, founder of the market intelligence platform Cleanview.
- Applying that 30% to the 378 GW U.S. pipeline over a decade would mean about 11 GW annually, slightly above the 2005-2024 average, he said.
Threat level: That's still "a lot if you think we shouldn't be building any new fossil fuel infrastructure at all given how rapidly our planet is warming," he said via email.
- Thomas estimates that 20%-25% of what's on the drawing board will become operational, not 30%, noting that many are linked to uncertain data center projects.
Friction point: Energy analyst Jane Flegal, writing on X, said the U.S. gas buildout should spur a deeper look at bureaucratic and cost barriers to fueling AI with "clean firm" sources.
- It's a term typically applied to tech including nuclear, geothermal, and long-duration storage.
What we're watching: The evolving backlash against data centers complicates things even further.
