New research sketches out how AI might reshape the economy
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New research from Anthropic outlines radically different paths for how AI will transform the economy in the next four years.
Why it matters: In one, AI's impact resembles that of the internet. In another, its impact resembles the arrival of the internet and electricity at once, while the most extreme AI economic scenario has no historical precedent.
- If these scenarios prove anything like reality, AI could produce an extraordinary economic boom with huge political consequences, with the strongest growth accompanied by the greatest disruption for white-collar workers.
The intrigue: Anthropic's economists say the next year or two could reveal which path is unfolding, though separate economic shocks could obscure early signals before the scenarios diverge more sharply closer to 2030. (There's also an interactive tool to test different scenarios.)
- "We will see in the next year or two how rapidly the capabilities increase, how rapidly the technology diffuses through the economy, and how much the productivity gains in all the sectors that it touches are," says Anton Korinek, an economist at Anthropic.
By the numbers: In the most benign "modest" scenario, AI is used for just 4% of tasks economy-wide by 2030. GDP is 1.6% larger by 2030 than it would be without the technology, with little effect on jobs or unemployment.
- In its "substantial" scenario, AI is used for 12% of tasks, largely replacing rather than assisting workers. By 2030, GDP is 8.3% larger, while unemployment rises modestly to 4.6%.
- In the most extreme scenario, AI performs nearly a third of the economy's work, mostly replacing workers. By 2030, GDP is 32% larger and unemployment is nearly 12%.
What they're saying: "These scenarios are not predetermined — it's not like an inexorable march," Anthropic economist Peter McCrory says.
- "Part of the value of doing scenario modeling is so that you can do scenario planning," McCrory adds. "In some real sense, we have agency over which future is likely to materialize."
Zoom in: The pain is concentrated among white-collar workers: Employment falls about 4% in the substantial scenario and more than 20% in the extreme one.
Zoom out: In every scenario, AI shifts income toward investors and away from workers, with the divide widening as the technology takes on more work.
- In the scenario where AI has the biggest economic impact, labor's share of income falls from 60% to 45% by 2030. Even though the economy is roughly a third larger, workers collectively earn as much as they would if AI did not exist at all.
- It could set up a political fight over who benefits from a much richer economy. Workers' share of the economic pie has already been shrinking, hitting a record-low 53% in the second quarter.
Of note: The three scenarios don't capture the full range of possible futures, including political obstacles such as opposition to data centers or demands to pause AI development.
- They also don't account for catastrophic risks from the technology itself. (Three Anthropic researchers warned Tuesday night that advanced AI could pose an existential threat to humanity.)
- The models exclude recessions and financial turmoil, including the possibility that AI-driven job losses weaken spending and trigger layoffs elsewhere. Advances in robotics that could automate physical jobs are also excluded.
