GOP Latino gains fade as gender divides deepen
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A horn player in a mariachi band performs during an event hosted by BOLD DEMOCRATS, a Hispanic PAC in Houston on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. Photo: Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images
Latino voters swung sharply toward Republicans in 2024. Now, much of that gain is fading as gender and generational divides widen.
Why it matters: The GOP breakthrough two years ago hasn't produced a uniformly more conservative Latino electorate, as Democrats have regained ground in polling this year.
- But an Axios analysis of recent polls shows Latino voters aren't simply swinging right, then left. The data show Latino politics fragmenting from within, as young Latino men and women increasingly split over immigration, President Trump and democracy.
By the numbers: Democrats lead Republicans 56%-29% on the generic House ballot among 1,353 Latino registered voters in seven battleground states, according to a new bipartisan BSP Research/Shaw & Co. poll for the American Business Immigration Coalition and American Families United.
- Among Latino voters, Democrats lead in six states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
- Florida breaks the pattern, with Republicans holding a 44%-43% edge.
- The pollsters calculated that Democrats' advantage among Latinos is 11 points wider than their Latino margin in 2024.
- Neither party escapes voter dissatisfaction: 39% view congressional Democrats unfavorably, compared with 63% unfavorably for congressional Republicans.
State of play: Inflation and gas prices remain voters' biggest concerns, but immigration remains highly salient — though voters don't choose between enforcement and legalization as an either-or.
- 63% called the treatment of immigrants one of their top issues, while 59% said the same about creating legal status for undocumented immigrants with U.S.-citizen family members.
- 76% preferred a candidate position calling for a bipartisan path to permanent legal status and immigration reform, compared with 24% who preferred a deportation-focused position.
More than 70% in every state surveyed also backed strengthening border security while providing work permits to long-term undocumented immigrants who work and pass a background check.
Zoom in: Some of the sharpest divides now run within generations.
- Among California Latino registered voters under 30, a new UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Institute analysis of UC Berkeley polling found striking differences between men and women.
- 88% of young Latinas called protecting immigrant communities very important, versus 60% of young Latino men.
- 82% of young Latinas called fighting President Trump's agenda very important, versus 52% of young Latino men.
- On defending democracy and protecting voting rights, 92% of young Latinas called the issue very important, versus 74% of young Latino men.
Zoom out: In the 2024 presidential election, nearly half of Hispanic voters backed Trump — the best performance by a GOP presidential candidate in modern times, according to an Axios review of past elections dating to 1960.
- But polls show that advantage has been nearly wiped out as Latinos have turned against Trump's moves on immigration, trade and the economy.
- A Hart Research-TelevisaUnivision poll this month separately found Democrats ahead 58%-35% among 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 competitive House districts.
The intrigue: A major Latino evangelical group is stepping into the 2026 election conversation with a message about political disagreement and civic responsibility.
- The National Latino Evangelical Coalition on Friday released "With Love: A Christian Guide to Faithful Voting," a bilingual, nonpartisan guide asking voters to consider three questions about candidates: whether they demonstrate love of neighbor, show trustworthy character and use power responsibly.
- "Our responsibility to America and to our neighbors continues long after Election Day," NALEC president Rev. Gabriel Salguero said.
Methodology: The BSP Research/Shaw & Co. poll is based on a survey conducted Sept. 4-16, 2026 of 1,353 Latino registered voters in seven battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
- The survey was done in English and Spanish through live telephone interviews, text-message invitations and online panels.
- The overall margin of error is ±2.7 percentage points.
