Scoop: NRSC pleads for $9M to defend three red seats
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The Senate GOP campaign arm is making an extraordinary late ask — $8.9 million, to be exact — for three red states: Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, according to a memo sent Thursday and obtained by Axios.
Why it matters: The request is yet another sign of the headwinds facing Republicans. In a good year, they wouldn't be begging for millions to defend states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
- "We need $8.9 million in additional hard dollars to close the media gap and sustain that progress through Election Day," a memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee states.
Zoom in: The memo lays out specific fundraising goals for each race, sending donors to joint fundraising accounts and campaigns.
- $1.2 million in Alaska, where Democratic nominee former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in the RealClearPolitics polling average by two percentage points.
- $4.2 million in Iowa, where Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson are separated by less than a percentage point in the RCP polling average.
- $3.5 million in Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has built a four-percentage-point lead over Sen. Jon Husted (R) in the RCP polling average.
Between the lines: The memo directs donors to candidates' campaigns or joint fundraising committees, which have higher donor limits.
- The committee has been taking advantage of a Supreme Court ruling to get more advertising at lower prices by coordinating with campaigns.
- NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) touted this strategy in a closed-door lunch on Wednesday, showing in a chart how it has allowed them to keep up with Democrats' stronger campaign fundraising, according to slides seen by Axios.
- "The environment remains tough, but these races have improved as the Republican ecosystem has engaged," says the NRSC memo.
Zoom out: Cook Political Report this week moved the Senate races in Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina in their ratings toward Democrats.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Kansas, Michigan and Iowa toward Democrats.
- Democrats are competitive (at least lean-Republican) in seven seats currently held by Republicans, according to both raters.
- They only need four to take the majority next Congress.
The other side: Democrats have their own late-stage headaches, with Democratic senators calling for a cash infusion for their candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed — warning that he's getting trounced by outside super PACs.
What we're hearing: Republicans are quietly starting to count out North Carolina and Georgia, based on our conversations.
- Semafor reported millions of dollars in GOP super PAC money were pulled from North Carolina.
- But the GOP sees a silver lining in New Hampshire and Michigan, where their candidates are making competitive bids to flip Democratic seats.
- Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is telling candidates to run the race they need to in their state, even if it means breaking with him, Congress, or, in some cases, President Trump.
The bottom line: "I'm very realistic about there are political headwinds for us, and so you have to navigate that," Thune told Axios on Wednesday.
