Inside Trump, Netanyahu's dilemma: Strike Iran before elections or wait

• But the Israeli and U.S. militaries are still on alert and concluding preparations to be ready in case he changes his mind, sources said.
• "Bibi seems to want to go in again. He has talked to the president about it a couple times, and the president has said, 'Well, you know, Bibi, go ahead and get ready.' But there's really no commitment. 'Go ahead and get ready' is maybe now, maybe later, maybe never," a U.S. official said.
• A White House official said it's "false" that Trump and Netanyahu discussed resuming the war. "The President has said that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections," the person said.

• Netanyahu's office said that "the prime minister maintains regular contact with President Trump and senior U.S. administration officials and does not comment on the content of their conversations."

Driving the news: Netanyahu has had several calls with Trump over the last two weeks about returning to major combat operations in Iran.

• According to the sources, Netanyahu and Trump spoke about a potential joint U.S.-Israeli operation that would hit military and nuclear targets.
• Netanyahu expressed concern about steps Israel believes Iran is taking to reconstitute all of the various parts of its nuclear program.
• Israel is especially concerned about Iran potentially operating Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment site.
• Trump's top cabinet members huddled for hours at Camp David on Oct. 2 to discuss next steps in the war and the possibility of resuming strikes.

Behind the scenes: An Israeli official said Trump initially seemed to be leaning toward resuming attacks, but then grew more hesitant.

• A U.S. official said Trump has been going back and forth on the issue.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the leadership of U.S. Central Command are the strongest backers of resuming strikes in Iran, a source familiar with the discussions said.
• But most of Trump's advisers favor keeping up economic sanctions and other forms of pressure for now.
• "They claim this economic choking is working better and better. Let's keep it up," the second U.S. official said.

Between the lines: Renewed strikes would carry major political implications for both leaders.

• Resuming the war could dramatically affect the Israeli elections, since Iran would likely fire hundreds of ballistic missiles at the country in retaliation.
• Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke last week with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and discussed the possibility of resuming full-scale fighting against Iran within the next three weeks, according to a source briefed on the call.
• Zamir said that restarting the war in that timeframe could cause the Israeli elections to be postponed, given that Iran would probably retaliate, the sources said.
• Caine's spokesman, Joe Holstead, declined to comment.
• It's a big dilemma for Zamir because a strike ahead of the elections could be seen as a political ploy by Netanyahu that would erode public trust in the military, which is largely viewed as apolitical.

The intrigue: The White House is aware of Netanyahu's domestic political considerations. "Bibi's got an election before the midterms. He believes his strength is being a wartime prime minister," one of the U.S. officials said.

• In meetings with his security and intelligence chiefs in recent days, Netanyahu claimed it was Trump, not him, who initiated the discussion about possibly hitting Iran before the elections, an Israeli official said. According to this account, Trump asked Netanyahu if Israel would join.
• Resuming the war before the U.S. election could backfire on Trump by reminding voters of the unpopular conflict and potentially sending gas prices higher.

The big picture: Qatari mediators are still waiting for Iran to respond to the latest U.S. counterproposal to end the war, which includes demands for nuclear concessions.

• "The negotiations are not really dead, but they're not really alive. We're just here, piling on the pressure and there's a belief that smarter heads will prevail over there," a U.S. official said.
• "The Iranians thought this president would back down because of the pressure and the midterms. He has shown them the error of their ways," the official added.
• Trump repeated a familiar refrain Tuesday, telling reporters that "Iran is a failed country" and "we will make a decision on Iran very soon."