Exclusive: Ad backfiring on Ramaswamy, GOP poll finds
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Republican Vivek Ramaswamy campaigns in Strongsville, Ohio, last week. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Republicans fear that Vivek Ramaswamy's explosive attack ad featuring his opponent's estranged mother could cost them the Ohio governor's race, based on new internal polling that shows him falling further behind, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: The poll's findings underscore Republicans' anxiety over Ramaswamy's decision to air the deeply personal attack on Democrat Amy Acton despite warnings from some fellow Republicans that it crossed a line.
Driving the news: The private poll, commissioned by a Republican group and obtained by Axios, found Acton leading Ramaswamy by eight points — up from a two-point lead in the same poll earlier this month, before the ad began circulating on Oct. 19.
- The ad "is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race," a memo attached to the poll states.
Catch up quick: The ad at the center of the controversy features Donna Arthur, Acton's estranged mother, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and urges Ohioans not to vote for her.
- Acton has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather when she was 12 and that her mother sided with her abuser. The stepfather was charged with sexual assault but fled to Pennsylvania, where he died in 2004 as a fugitive.
- Acton and her brother were removed from their mother's custody. Acton has said she hasn't seen her mother since 1978.
Zoom out: As Axios first reported, Ramaswamy's campaign treated the ad as a game-changer in the campaign for governor, committing $4 million to airing the commercial statewide despite warnings from other Republicans that it could backfire.
- Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who worked closely with Acton when she was the state's health director, said that airing the ad was wrong and urged Ramaswamy to take it down.
- But President Trump and Vice President Vance backed Ramaswamy. Vance told the bipartisan critics of the ad to "stop whining."
The intrigue: The new poll done for Republicans indicates that the ad was indeed a game-changer — just not the type Ramaswamy's campaign hoped it would be.
- A memo attached to the poll said that 86% of the survey's 800 respondents said they had seen, read or heard something about the ad.
- By a 2-to-1 ratio, those who said they were familiar with it said it made them more likely to vote for Acton.
Between the lines: National Republican operatives fear the backlash against Ramaswamy over the ad could also hurt U.S. Sen. Ohio Jon Husted's reelection bid in a state that could be key in determining control of the Senate.
- Husted has said he wouldn't have run the ad.
- "Vivek's ad put the whole Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn't decide the Senate majority," said a GOP operative who has been briefed on polling in the race.
The ad was shot months ago, a source familiar with the situation said, but there was internal resistance to running it — with one huge exception.
- "The candidate is the one pushing for it," a source close to the campaign said.
- The ad initially was published online because the campaign was testing to see its effectiveness. The ad was sent it to poll respondents to watch on their computers and smartphones to rate, according to the source.
- "This was not planned. But Vivek got what he wanted," according to the source. "I probably wouldn't have run it."
Yes, but: A separate Suffolk University poll showed a narrower deficit for Ramaswamy — four points, an improvement over Suffolk's previous findings in late September, which found Acton up by nine points.
The other side: Ramaswamy has defended the ad, arguing that Acton has misrepresented her past and avoided addressing substantive issues facing Ohio voters.
What they're saying: A Ramaswamy campaign representative declined to comment.
What's next: Trump is scheduled to campaign in Chillicothe, Ohio, with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday evening.
Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting.
The Republican group's internal survey of 800 likely Ohio voters was conducted Oct. 23–26 and found Ramaswamy's support had fallen from 45% earlier this month to 42%, while Acton's climbed from 47% to 50%. The survey had a margin of error for each candidate's result of +/- 3.46 percentage points.
