Exclusive: Dems to test AI backlash in key House races
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Democrats are seeking to weaponize AI in four competitive House races, launching a $4 million ad campaign to attack GOP incumbents based on new polling data shared exclusively with Axios.
Why it matters: The midterms have been called the first AI election, and the new campaign is one of a few key tests of how deeply voter anxiety over the revolutionary technology will sway outcomes at the ballot box.
Driving the news: The Democratic group Tomorrow Together plans to run ads calling out Republicans in swing districts in Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan for a 2025 vote they cast to block state AI regulations.
- The attack is based on new polls showing that voters are more concerned about efforts to block state AI regulation than they are about data center controversies.
- The data points to a shift in voter sentiment around AI. While previous polls showed that Americans were unsure which political party to trust, surveys of the four districts showed a significant advantage on the issue for Democrats.
- Voters trust Democrats over Republicans to hold AI executives accountable by a margin of seven to 10 points across the four swing districts, according to Workbench Strategy, which Tomorrow Together commissioned to do the surveys.
- The Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan districts are all in presidential battlegrounds and will be a bellwether for AI issues in the midterms.
Catch up quick: The House in May 2025 passed a budget bill that included a 10-year moratorium on state-level AI regulation.
- Republican Reps. Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) and Tom Barrett (Mich.) all voted in favor of the budget bill that included the moratorium.
- Widespread, bipartisan backlash quickly erupted, and on July 1 the Senate voted 99-1 to strip the moratorium from the package, including its chief sponsor, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
The big picture: Democrats want to make AI a winning issue for them in elections.
- The Workbench Strategy data points to widespread voter skepticism of AI companies, with majorities in all four districts saying candidates' AI positions matter to their vote.
- The poll also found broad support for AI accountability measures, including making data centers cover utility costs, holding AI companies liable for harm and protecting consumers.
The bottom line: Preemption, once considered a wonky, niche policy issue, is emerging as a core theme in battleground state attack ads, an indicator of just how much AI issues may swing the upcoming election.
