Dems flip House and Senate seats as Trump rages
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The state of North Carolina produced the first flips of the 2026 midterms, with Democrats winning a House and Senate seat.
Why it matters: The results tonight will be the clearest national test of President Trump's second presidency, following war abroad, economic anxiety at home and sweeping changes in Washington. Trump has made himself the face of the Republican campaign for control.
The latest: In a major win of the night, Democrat Jon Ossoff won reelection to U.S. Senate from Georgia, AP projects.
- In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper defeated Trump's handpicked candidate, Michael Whatley, flipping one of the Republican party's two U.S. Senate seats.
- In North Carolina's 11th House district, Jamie Ager flipped the seat for Democrats. The seat is held by retiring Rep. Chuck Edwards, who ended his reelection bid after the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured.
Zoom in: Before the elections, Axios' Hans Nichols pointed out two House races to watch in Florida that could be an indicator of the larger balance of power.
- Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor will win FL-14, AP projects, a sign that Republicans will see their House majority disappear.
- Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz will win FL-25, AP projects. Republicans need to keep it close in the district where Trump was +9 in 2024.
It's also worth keeping an eye on Virginia, Nichols writes:
- Watch if Democrats are flipping VA-01, a Trump +5 seat in 2024. If they do, Democrats are in for a very good night. If they end up flipping VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night.
- Similarly, VA-02 could tell us whether even a strong Republican incumbent like Rep. Jen Kiggans can survive a Democratic wave.
The intrigue: Trump has made Fox News the subject of his ire by critiquing Fox's political polling, calling it "a hit job, and every answer is 'BULLSHIT!'"
- He also texted on-air guests to rage against Jessica Tarlov, a Fox co-host and Democratic strategist he called "DUMB AS A ROCK."
- This came hours after he criticized multiple Democrat candidates as voters went to the polls.
What we're hearing: Voters are saying cost of living and government corruption are the two top issues in this year's election, according to exit polls from AP.
- Cost of living skyrocketed thanks to the Iran war and the president's tariff policies.
- Trump himself was deemed corrupt and dangerous in a poll of registered voters prior to the election.
What's at stake in the 2026 midterm races
The big picture: Republicans have largely given Trump a free hand in Washington since his return to the White House. Democratic control of even one chamber of Congress would open the door to investigations, subpoenas and even more legislative gridlock.
- An unprecedented mobilization of election monitors and legal battles involving the Trump administration have raised concerns about potential disruptions and challenges to the results.
- Trump has said he'll respect the election results if "they're honest elections."
What's at stake: Republicans enter Election Day defending narrow congressional majorities, with a number of battlegrounds and traditionally GOP districts and states shifting into toss-up territory during the campaigns' final weeks.
- The House: All 435 seats are on the ballot. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reclaim the majority. Redistricting has reshaped the battlefield.
- The Senate: 35 seats are on the ballot. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
3 scenarios for the 2026 midterms
Some scenarios:
- Democrats flip the House: They gain greater investigative power, control of committees and leverage over spending — but Trump retains his veto and executive authority. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could become the first Black speaker of the House, or face an opponent from his left.
- Democrats take Congress: Democrats' oversight power expands, while Trump's agenda faces major obstacles. A third Trump impeachment could be on the table, although being convicted in a Senate trial would require a two-thirds vote.
- Republicans retain Congress: Trump and GOP leaders get another two years to advance his agenda, though narrow margins could complicate plans.
Between the lines: Beyond control of Congress, the results will test whether Trump's gains among young, Black and Latino voters in 2024 have endured — or if those voters are moving back toward Democrats who are trying to rebuild a winning coalition for 2028.
What we're watching: Whether close races, outstanding ballots and legal challenges delay a clear verdict.
