After midterm defeat, Trump faces mostly bad options in Iran
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President Trump looks on at a midterm campaign rally Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. Photo: Brendan Smialoski/AFP via Getty Images
President Trump has conceded that the Iran war cost Republicans dearly in the midterms. Now he must decide whether to cut his losses and reach a deal — or double down and go back to bombing.
Why it matters: All of Trump's options are problematic:
The first is to strike. But going back to war would be highly unpopular — keeping gas prices high and probably not yielding a better military result.
Another is to negotiate. But if Iranian officals refuse to make concessions — or, sensing weakness after the president's political loss, up their demands — Trump will have a hard time reaching a deal.
The third is to "strangle," as aides put it. This would mean sticking with the status quo — the naval blockade coupled with crippling economic sanctions that leave the Iranian regime to "rot" — while continuing to test its appetite for a deal. This path, however, could take months to show progress.
The big picture: The president has said for weeks he would end the war one way or another after the election.
- One of his former advisers told Axios: "It's one thing to lose the midterms. But Trump doesn't want to look like a loser twice."
- That's left even his closest aides unsure what he's going to do next.
The intrigue: Vice President Vance, in an extraordinary statement Wednesday morning, bluntly blamed the war for the GOP's midterm drubbing. It added a new political calculation to Trump's decision.
- "The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote on X. "The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. ... But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there."
- Vance also cited the U.S. relationship with Israel as a serious liability for Republicans.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that Vance's analysis was "largely true" because the war drove gas prices up. But Trump said he'd do it again if he had to: "We had no choice. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
- Asked when he's going to end the war, Trump responded: "Whenever I wanted to. But it's got to be done right, because they can't have a nuclear weapon."
Behind the scenes: In recent months, Vance has led a faction within Trump's inner circle advising him to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. He privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of "being wrong on everything" regarding Iran, sources said.
- Vance warned that the war was highly unpopular and could cost Republicans the election, the sources said.
- Most senior officials around Trump have shared Vance's views. But Trump still leaned toward resuming the war. At one point, he considered launching strikes before the midterms, as Netanyahu was pressing him to do.
- Trump decided to wait. But against the advice of his top advisers, he still endorsed Netanyahu in Israel's election last week.
State of play: The U.S. military is finishing preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran, including sending more assets to the region, American officials say.
- At the same time, Qatari mediators are working to secure U.S. and Iranian support for a draft agreement to head off a return to battle and possibly resume direct talks in the coming days, regional sources say.
- The mediators asked White House officials before the election what Trump would do if he lost. The president's advisers couldn't vouch either way, a source with knowledge said.
- "We told everybody that we want to see first how the elections turn out for us," a U.S. official said.
The other side: Iranian officials celebrated Trump's electoral defeat, saying it showed they're winning the war.
- "The Iranian nation handed Trump a strategic defeat on the battlefield and in the Hormuz — and a POLITICAL DEFEAT in Washington," Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei wrote on X. "Meanwhile, Americans got stuck with the bill for his war. Anyone who takes on Iran will pay the price — from the battlefield to their own doorstep."
Diplomats involved in the mediation efforts, Trump advisers and Middle East experts said Iran's gloating could make the president more likely to return to war.
- "Tehran's temptation is likely to mistake Trump's political weakness for military weakness and overplay its hand, when the smarter move is to bank a deal while Washington still wants one," Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, told Axios.
Yes, but: Trump could opt to maintain the "no war, no deal" status quo.
- CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other advisers want Trump to let the naval blockade and economic pressure campaign play out longer, tightening the screws on Iran.
The bottom line: There's no tidy way for Trump to "finish the job" in Iran.
