Mississippi's Senate cliffhanger puts state's voter rolls under microscope

• Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom are locked in a razor-thin race to be the state's junior senator.
• As of 2pm ET Friday, Colom led by a little over 2000 votes, according to Associated Press data.

The big picture: More than 230,000 Mississippians were listed as inactive ahead of the midterms, according to an analysis by Mississippi Today. That's up from roughly 166,000 in the 2024 election, according to federal data.

• Those voters weren't removed from the rolls, but they were required to cast affidavit ballots in Tuesday's election.

• Election workers review those ballots after Election Day, checking voter information against registration records. In some cases, voters must verify their identity with their county circuit clerk's office, slowing vote counting and — in this case — determining the winner.

The intrigue: The inactive voter total shot up after the state's March primaries, months after Secretary of State Michael Watson's office inked a $50,000 deal with credit reporting company Experian to help verify voter addresses.

• "The increase in inactive registrations across the state of Mississippi raised some concerns because it seemed unusually high compared to other cycles and in such a small amount of time," Thessalia Merivaki, an elections research expert and former professor at Mississippi State University, tells Axios.
• She says there were concerns about "how reliable" these data brokers are, and whether relying on them had "resulted in erroneously placing eligible voters on an inactive status."

How it works: Experian's data was intended to flag voters who might have moved, not automatically establish an address change.

• Local election officials were supposed to compare those records with other information, such as death records, Social Security records and the National Change of Address database to maintain voter lists, but counties have discretion over how to proceed.
• Merivaki says officials in Oktibbeha County knew some records were inaccurate because they recognized the voters. An election official in Oktibbeha County confirmed that information to Axios on Friday.

Case in point: Jarvis Dortch, executive director of the ACLU of Mississippi, told Axios that a longtime Chickasaw County voter was told he lived in a different county, despite never having moved.

• Dortch suspects a car loan the man co-signed for his sister in Lee County likely caused the mix-up. He said the state ultimately let him vote.
• Dortch also said some voters were turned away instead of offered affidavit ballots.

Yes, but: It's unclear how many of the newly inactive registrations are due to Experian data.

• An Experian spokesperson told Axios that the company "has not provided services to the State of Mississippi since early 2025. The solution provided at that time consisted of supplemental address information and was not designed or intended to validate voter records."
• "Decisions regarding voter registration policies, procedures and record updates are made solely by election officials in accordance with applicable local, state and federal laws."
• Watson's office later told WAPT-TV it no longer uses Experian data, switching to IDI Data and U.S. Postal Service records.
• His office did not respond to Axios' questions about when it stopped using the data or other detailed questions about the contract and its terms.

What they're saying: Watson defended the state's system Tuesday, saying, "The extra few minutes it may take to vote via affidavit ballot are well worth the election integrity added by having cleaner voter rolls!"

Go deeper: Magic in Mississippi: Democrat locked in Deep South Senate stunner