For five years in office, President Trump has operated with intuition, impulse and improvisation, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• The Iran war, now entering Week 3, is the first time Trump's style has made it impossible for him to easily talk or improvise his way out.

Why it matters: Trump could wind up trapped between his caprice and the realities of war. He expects a quick, clear victory. But unlike tariffs that can be swiftly imposed and rescinded, the war's outcome is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes. And Iran gets a say.

Trump is working to help break the Persian Gulf oil jam. But in doing so, he risks getting caught in an "escalation trap," where a stronger force is incentivized to keep attacking to demonstrate dominance amid diminishing returns.

• A senior Trump administration official practically admitted as much, telling Axios' Marc Caputo: "The Iranians f*cking around with the Strait makes [Trump] more dug in."

State of play: Israel wants regime change in Iran and more dramatic military destruction as it weighs an invasion of Lebanon. Bibi Netanyahu has shown several times that when it comes to Iran, he has the ability to convince Trump to take his side.

• Iran wants survival — and to prove it can impose pain, militarily and economically, to scare off future attacks.
• And other nations want the free flow of oil and commerce through the Middle East's waters and air.

👀 What we're watching: Averaging out the timelines mentioned by Trump and his aides, it's fair to assume the administration expected an intense military operation lasting about 4–6 weeks. That makes April 1 (Day 33 of the war) a real gut-check moment.

• But in Washington and in capitals around the world, officials are preparing for a much longer crisis. Axios' Barak tells us he's heard from three different people in the administration and in allied countries who believe the instability in the Middle East and U.S. involvement could continue until September, even if the war shifts to a low-intensity conflict.
• Israel told journalists it plans at least three more weeks of attacks on thousands of additional targets in Iran.

The president said yesterday in a phone call with the Financial Times' Ed Luce: "We've essentially decimated Iran … They have no navy, no anti-aircraft, no air force, everything is gone. The only thing they can do is make a little trouble by putting a mine in the water — a nuisance, but the nuisance can cause problems."

• Anna Kelly, the White House's principal deputy press secretary, emphasized to us that Operation Epic Fury is the result of "months and months of meticulous planning," with "ample options" provided to the president, who took all of his top officials' views into account as he made the final decision.

Trump could pull out tomorrow. But the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and push oil prices so high that America would have to re-engage.

• The Iranians have made it clear in private and in public that even if Trump decides to end the war, they could continue shooting missiles and rockets until they get guarantees that this is the end of the war, not just a temporary ceasefire.

Behind the scenes: Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south. But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called "buyer's remorse" — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.

• A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time. "He ended up saying, 'I just want to do it,'" the source said. "He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops."
• The source said Trump was "high on his own supply" after last summer's quick strikes in Iran and January's abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro: "He saw multiple decisive quick victories with extraordinary military competence."

🥊 Reality check: Trump's war of choice certainly looks like a military success so far. Iran's missile and drone launches have greatly decreased, indicating it's running out of weapons or the ability to fire them.

• The U.S. and Israeli air forces have overhead supremacy to bomb at will.
• Much of the Iranian navy is underwater.
• The ayatollah and senior leaders have been killed.
• The U.S. military death toll (at least 13) could have been greater for this breadth of action.

🔮 What's next: Trump now may have to make a tough decision on a significant military escalation — new territory for him as president.

• Some officials close to him had hoped he'd be able to show some quick gains and declare victory. Now, it's not apparent how he'd do that convincingly.
• As Barak reported, the U.S. doesn't have clear enough lines of communication with the Iranian regime to make a deal that's sure to stick. Trump said on Truth Social on Friday night that Iran "is totally defeated and wants a deal - But not a deal that I would accept!"

The bottom line: To claim victory, the Iranian regime just needs to stay alive.

• Share this column ... Marc Caputo, Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

COSTA MESA, Calif. — On the Season 2 premiere of "The Axios Show," out this morning, Anduril Industries founder Palmer Luckey says the U.S. holds an "extremely small" lead on China in the AI race — in part because authoritarian governments have certain advantages in deploying new technology.

• Why it matters: Luckey — whose company is valued at $60 billion — leads one of the splashiest, fastest-growing and most polarizing defense contractors on the planet.

China has done a "very good job of distilling our models, copying a lot of our technology, leveraging open-source AI advancements and getting those advancements into fielding," he tells Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest at Anduril headquarters in Orange County, Calif.

• "I'm not saying we need to build a police state, a surveillance apparatus," Luckey added. "I'm just recognizing that China has the will at the top to push these things out much faster than the United States."

🔎 Zoom in: More key points Luckey laid out during the almost hourlong interview:

• ☢️ He would "definitely" build nuclear weapons: "I would build fission weapons. I would build fusion weapons. Nuclear weapons have been one of the most stabilizing forces in history — ever."
• 🪨 He's serious about fighting an underground war: "Anduril has working prototypes of subterranean systems that can deliver a variety of kinetic, electronic and other effects."

🎬 Watch the full episode.

President Trump is working to assemble a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hopes to announce it later this week, four sources tell Axios' Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid.

• Trump is also weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require U.S. boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: Oil and gas prices are rising as Iran's blockade of the Gulf's narrow strait drags on, choking off a significant share of the world's crude supply.

• Iran is blocking Gulf countries from exporting their oil while allowing tankers picking up Iranian crude to pass freely — keeping its own oil flowing to China and other countries.
• In a Truth Social post Saturday, Trump said the U.S. and several other countries will send warships to the Gulf to reopen commercial shipping and called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. to help.

☎️ Behind the scenes: Trump and senior administration officials spent the weekend on the phones working to assemble the multinational coalition, a U.S. official said.

• "Most of this oil isn't our oil — it goes to other countries. So if they want it and they want the price to come down, they need to help out," an official said.

Keep reading.

The S&P 500 appears relatively calm on the surface this year, but dig a little deeper and you'll find some wild swings.

• Why it matters: The index has fallen just 3% for the year, but that masks some big-time volatility.

By the numbers: 57 stocks are up by at least 20%, and 47 stocks are down by at least 20%, according to an analysis conducted Friday afternoon by Bespoke Investment Group.

📈 Winners: Energy and defense industry stocks like Valero (+43%), Occidental Petroleum (+40%) and Lockheed Martin (+34%).

📉 Losers: Workday, which makes HR software imperiled by the SaaSpocalypse, has declined 39% this year. Oracle, an AI darling stock, is down 20%. Salesforce, the SaaS king, off 27%.

• Go deeper with Axios Markets.

A building boom across the South and Mountain West has cooled rents — but that relief could fade as new construction slows, Axios' Sami Sparber writes.

• The median rent in Austin — a building hot spot — was down nearly 6% this February from a year earlier.

It fell roughly 5% in San Antonio, New Orleans and Denver, according to data from Apartment List, a rental site.

• Phoenix (-4%), Tampa (-4%) and Salt Lake City (-2%) also posted big declines.

📍 The other side: Rental markets are tighter in the Midwest, Northeast and parts of the West Coast, where building is harder due to zoning restrictions and a lack of space.

• Share this story.

Teneo, a CEO advisory firm, and Thoughtworks, a software engineering consultancy, are launching an AI-focused joint venture, Axios' Madison Mills writes.

• The venture combines Teneo's boardroom access with Thoughtworks' 10,000+ engineers to build custom AI tools for executives during "one of the most consequential technology upheavals in their careers," Paul Keary, Teneo's CEO, told Axios.

Alex Pigliucci, Teneo's global head of enterprise clients, has developed best practices for executives looking to embrace AI:

1. CEOs need to be the ones ensuring workers adopt AI, instead of delegating the task to another employee.
2. Show quarterly or monthly progress on use cases, not just one-off partnerships with AI labs.
3. Don't commit to one tool at this phase of the AI buildout. Experiment.

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March Madness brackets were unveiled on Selection Sunday, with Duke securing the No. 1 overall seed for the men's tournament and UConn getting the top spot for the women's tournament.

• ⏳ Bracket deadlines: Noon on Thursday for the men, 11 a.m. on Friday for the women.

Printable brackets: Men ... Women.

Above: The Furman Paladins celebrate during a Selection Sunday watch party at Timmons Arena in Greenville, S.C.

"One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" were the biggest winners in a tight race for who would take home the most golden statuettes at the Oscars last night, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes from the red carpet.

• The Paul Thomas Anderson drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio came out on top with six awards, including best picture.

"Sinners," which broke the record for most nominations with 16, won four Oscars.

• The horror film's star, Michael B. Jordan, became the seventh Black man to win best actor.

Go deeper: History at the Oscars ... Full winners list ... Behind the scenes: What you didn't see on TV.