Major banks are upping their oil price estimates for the months and even years ahead.

Why it matters: Despite White House claims that it controls the Strait of Hormuz, the status of the vital energy chokepoint and other regional shipping could be messy for a long time.

• The banks' reports underscore how disruption around the strait is a potentially lasting feature of the global energy landscape.

The big picture: "We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted 'new normal' in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired," HSBC Global Investment Research said in a note yesterday.

• Goldman Sachs' analysts this week cited a "new assumption that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027" when revising their forecasts upward.
• "Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict," its Sept. 7 note states.

State of play: Oil prices are at their highest levels in six weeks, trading at $100.93 this morning.

Zoom in: Goldman this week upped its December Brent crude outlook to $85 and its average 2027 price to $80.

• Bank of America just raised its "baseline" forecast to $83 for the second half of 2026 and $75 next year.
• HSBC forecasts $95 Brent in Q4; boosted its 2027 forecast by $20 (!) to $85, and raised its longer-term outlook to $75 from 2028 onwards.
• "The revision to our crude oil price forecasts reflects a permanent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer path back to market equilibrium," HSBC analysts write.

Threat level: These and other banks caution that things could get much more expensive.

• BofA's baseline assumes oil transits "gradually normalize" and "prolonged" conflict is avoided. But if "skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year end," Brent could trade at $95-$120.
• Goldman sees a potential jump above $120 if average oil output from the Gulf region remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in 2027.
• HSBC's "stalemate" case sees $120, "easing once demand destruction and faster non-OPEC supply" restore balance in the third quarter of 2027.

My thought bubble: Oil outlooks are written in faint pencil. More important: changing assumptions that now see higher prices sticking around for a long time.

Yes, but: Uncertainty runs both ways. These types of outlooks also have downside cases with more normalization and much lower prices.

What we're watching: The price tag for governments' new emphasis on energy security after multiple crises in recent years.

• "The war in Ukraine, the conflict with Iran, and the broader fragmentation of the global trading system have fundamentally altered how governments think about energy supply," states a new, wide-angle Barclays report on the energy landscape.
• Redundancy and diversity of oil and gas supplies is newly chic.

"The result is a global energy system that is less integrated, more regionalised, and more expensive to operate," it states.

What's next: Market-watchers get more to chew on.

• The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its latest 2026-2027 outlook today.
• The International Energy Agency's closely watched monthly oil report lands Friday morning.

Brent crude oil prices this morning topped $100 per barrel for the first time since July 24.

Why it matters: It's a symbolic threshold that underscores the very real and, as we noted atop today's edition, potentially long-term costs of the Iran conflict.

• The latest increases follow renewed hostilities, including the U.S. military hitting five Iranian tankers.

⚛️ Bluecore Energy, a developer of small nuclear reactors on barges that could power ports, yesterday announced that it's raised $50 million in seed funding. Go deeper

📜 Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey issued an executive order demanding that data centers with peak demand above 25 megawatts procure "incremental new clean" power to meet their needs.

☀️ Tech giant Oracle is soliciting plans to build 2 gigawatts of renewables in New Mexico. It's part of its wider plan to have the big Project Jupiter data center under construction achieve "carbon-free energy matching."

🔋 Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is bashing Ford's work with Chinese companies on battery and vehicle tech, calling it a "troubling picture" of a "foundational" U.S. brand tying its future to Chinese state-backed firms.

• Yes, but: Ford is pushing back against his letter and said it has factual errors, per CNBC.

⚛️ Holtec's IPO plan we just grazed yesterday is among the biggest yet of a series of nuclear companies seeking to go public, reports Axios Pro's Katie Fehrenbacher, who has more on the IPO filing.

Home heating oil bills are likely to be massive this winter in the Northeast — and as one such homeowner, I am terrified.

Why it matters: Beyond my ability to keep my daughter and dog alive through the long, dark suburban winter, the looming shadow of the oil delivery truck underscores the costs consumers are bearing as a result of parallel wars in Iran and Ukraine.

• Diesel hit an all-time high price of $5.90 a gallon on Monday and is up to $5.94 today.

Catch up quick: Like prices for diesel — a close cousin of home heating oil among refined petroleum products — heating fuel prices are hovering near record highs.

• In recent days, benchmark U.S. home heating oil futures leap-frogged highs hit in late 2022.
• U.S. heating oil futures are up just shy of 30% over the last three months. And they're up about 120% since the start of the year.

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