Axios Pro Rata

February 27, 2026
Top of the Morning
Today's column was supposed to be a wonky (and worrisome) item about VC fund returns. And then then the news gods rained fury down upon my plans.
Three giant headlines, all hitting after yesterday's market close:
1. OpenAI wants all the money
The ChatGPT maker this morning said that it's raised a staggering $110 billion at an $840 billion post-money valuation. For context, venture capitalists invested a total of $170 billion into U.S. startups in 2023.
- This includes $50 billion from Amazon, with $15 billion coming upfront, and $30 billion from both Nvidia and SoftBank. It's all cash — no cloud compute credits.
- Longtime backer Microsoft didn't participate, but the companies issued a joint statement reaffirming their partnership.
The deal isn't yet done. OpenAI has quietly spent the past two weeks meeting with sovereign wealth funds and other financial investors about adding another $10 billion to the pot, with final indications due shortly.
- If vastly oversubscribed, one option is that OpenAI's nonprofit foundation could do a secondary — given that it's still paper-rich but cash-poor. Proceeds would let the foundation launch programs, provide grants, etc.
OpenAI partnering with Amazon is just the latest indication that Big Tech no longer worries about U.S. antitrust regulators, who in 2024 launched an investigation into such deals.
2. Netflix and concede
Paramount Skydance won the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, with the deal now facing a steep regulatory path in both the U.S. and Europe.
- David Ellison's company upped its offer for the entire business to $31 per share, a 63% premium to where it began last September, which caused Netflix to walk away from its own deal for WBD's studio and streaming business.
- As my colleague Sara Fischer writes, everyone gets something. WBD CEO David Zaslav looks like Hollywood's savviest dealmaker. Ellison becomes the town's most powerful player. Netflix "leaves one competitor saddled with debt and two competitors burdened by a long, distracting regulatory approval process."
That said, Netflix also leaves the process without the studio it so badly craves. Don't be surprised if it begins kicking other tires.
3. Dorsey's decision
Jack Dorsey announced plans to lay off more than 4,000 employees at his fintech company Block, or around 40% of the company, essentially saying that they'd be replaced by AI tools.
- Other CEOs may feel emboldened or even incentivized to make similar decisions, particularly after Block shares spiked 25% in aftermarket trading.
- Many have privately discussed how AI has caused them to rethink hiring plans, but Dorsey's high-profile candor is a watershed moment. Even if Block's stock was on the ropes and big cuts were coming regardless.
Per Dorsey: "[S]omething has changed. [W]e're already seeing that the intelligence tools we're creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company."
- "[I] had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter."
It's one thing to replace people with machines, but quite another to prove performance.
- If Block can grow the top line with a much smaller headcount, the rest of Corporate America will take notice.
The BFD
The Brink's Co. (NYSE: BCO) has agreed to acquire ATM maker NCR Atleos (NYSE: NATL) for $6.6 billion in cash and stock.
Why it's the BFD: This is a reminder that cash remains a big business, even if an increasing number of purchases are being transacted via phones and physical cards.
Catch up quick: NCR Atleos was formed in 2023, after NCR split its ATM business off from its digital banking and commerce business.
Deal details: NCR stockholders will receive implied value of $50.40 per share, consisting of $30 in cash and 0.1574 shares of Brink's common stock.
- That represents a 24% premium over Wednesday's closing price for NCR shares.
- Brink's obtained $4.5 billion of bridge loan commitments from Morgan Stanley, to help finance the deal.
The bottom line: "Both companies operate a vast number of ATMs around the globe. Brink's is also known for securely transporting cash, as well as stocking it into ATMs through their ubiquitous Brink's trucks." — Kelly Cloonan, WSJ
Venture Capital Deals
• Viture, an SF-based XR glasses maker, raised $100m. Legend Capital led, joined by Bertelsmann Group. axios.link/47dDzzH
🚑 Salma Health, a brain health startup, raised $80m in Series A funding. Mubadala Capital and Arch Venture Partners led, joined by Lingotto Horizon and Averin Capital. axios.link/40vQJEr
• Encord, an SF-based physical AI data infrastructure company, raised $60m in Series C funding. Wellington Management led, joined by YC, CRV, N47, Crane Venture Partners, and Harpoon Ventures. axios.link/3ZUO4UN
• Flux, an electronics vibe-coding startup, raised $27m in Series B funding. 8VC led, joined by Bain Capital Ventures, Liquid 2 Ventures, and Outsiders Fund. axios.link/46pnXsM
• Sensera Systems, a Denver-based job-site intelligence platform, raised $27m in Series B funding. 10 Atlantic Group led, joined by Egis Capital Partners and MUUS. axios.link/47bi0Qg
• Xflow, an Indian B2B cross-border payments startup, raised $16.6m in Series A funding. General Catalyst led, joined Square Peg, Stripe, Lightspeed, Moore Capital, and PayPal Ventures. axios.link/4sbm0bD
🚑 Tamarind Bio, an SF-based AI drug discovery company, raised $12m in Series A funding. Dimension Capital led, joined by YC. axios.link/4aTicVk
🚀 Sophia Space, an orbital computer cooling startup, raised $10m from Alpha Funds, KDDI Green Partners Fund, and Unlock Venture Partners. axios.link/4tXpAYv
• FlyFocus, a Polish developer of unmanned aerial systems and avionics, raised €4.5m led by ffVC. axios.link/4ri8NgB
🚑 BrainCheck, an Austin, Texas-based digital cognitive care platform, raised $13m in Series A extension funding. Next Coast Ventures led, joined by S3 Venture and UPMC Enterprises. axios.link/4kV5Ws6
• Trace, a London-based enterprise AI adoption startup, raised $3m in seed funding from YC, Zeno Ventures, Transpose Platform Management, Goodwater Capital, Formosa Capital, and WeFunder. axios.link/4tXtHE0
• Huper, an Atlanta-based AI productivity and workflow tool for private markets, raised $1.5m in pre-seed funding from Nadia Partners, Link Ventures, and Long Ridge Equity Partners. axios.link/47bhQs8
Private Equity Deals
🍦 Grupo Alacant, a Spanish portfolio company of Investindustrial, agreed to buy Irish ice cream producer Silver Pail. axios.link/4l17fWv
• SolomonEdwards, a Renovus Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired CFO's Domain, an LA-based consulting and recruiting firm for CFO offices. axios.link/4tUwMEU
• Tonka Bay Equity Partners invested in Camp Digital, an Edina, Minn.-based marketing platform for home services. campdigital.com
⚡ Trive Capital invested in Rolfson Oil, a Watford City, N.D.-based fuel, oils, and lubricants distributor. axios.link/4rHB7Ke
• Wise Equity acquired FAS International, an Italian vending machine maker. axios.link/4tZUrni
• Woven Solutions, a Falfurrias portfolio company, acquired government consultancy Valence. axios.link/4aEtcaw
🚑 Zavation, a Gemspring Capital portfolio company, acquired ChoiceSpine, a Knoxville, Tenn.-based maker of spinal implant systems. axios.link/4r0aFdB
Public Offerings
🚑 Generate Biomedicines, a Somerville, Mass.-based AI drug discovery company focused on asthma, raised $400m in its IPO. The Phase 3 company priced in the middle of its $15-$17 range, will list on the Nasdaq (GENB), and had raised nearly $700m from Flagship Pioneering (58.6% pre-IPO stake), Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Alaska Permanent Fund, ADIA, Arch Venture Partners, Morningside, Modi Ventures, Amgen, NVentures, and Maps Capital. axios.link/4kXSrbf
Liquidity Events
• Equinix (Nasdaq: EQIX) and CPPIB agreed to buy pan-Nordic data center operator atNorth from Partners Group for $4b. axios.link/4kV7xhE
• EQT sold its remaining stake in Azelis Group (EBR: AZE), a Belgian chemicals and food ingredients company, for €190m. axios.link/4aTRmfM
More M&A
• Senior's (LSE: SNR), a U.K. engineering firm, said it's received five takeover offers and is considering two of them. axios.link/4aYSf76
🌍 ThomasLloyd Climate Solutions, an Asia-focused clean energy consulting and development firm, agreed to merge with Roman DBDR Acquisition Corp. II (Nasdaq: DRDB), a SPAC led by Dixon Doll Jr. axios.link/4kVTDf7
It's Personnel
• Noah Bishop joined Sterling Investment Partners as a senior VP. He previously was with Warburg Pincus. axios.link/4aEGAeN
• Encore Consumer Capital promoted Paul Rivenburgh to managing director. axios.link/4u2g46I
• Harris Williams promoted Jason Bass to co-head of M&A, Thierry Monjauze to head of Europe, and Joe Conner as co-head of transportation and logistics. It also named seven new managing directors: Stephan Döring, Zach Ledwith, Jon Meredith, Sylvain Noblet, Mike Rohman, Chris Toussaint, and Andy Warczak. harriswilliams.com
• MPearlRock, a partnership between MidOcean Partners, Kroger, and 84.51, added three senior operating advisors: Mark Ramadan, co-founder of Sir Kensington's and former CEO of Hu, Bill Toler, ex-CEO of Hostess Brands, and Bob Ostryniec, former global chief supply chain officer at Heinz. axios.link/4kX1qJL
🎲 Final Numbers


Caesars Entertainment shares surged 19% yesterday on an FT report that the casino operator is weighing takeover offers.
- One of them comes from Fertitta Entertainment, which owns the Golden Nugget casino chain.
That cold chill you feel might be memories of the last time that Caesars sold, a $30 billion buyout led by Apollo and TPG in early 2008.
- The debt-laden deal for what then was called Harrah's closed just two months before Bear Stearns went bankrupt, making it an instant albatross.
- Caesars would try and fail to go public in 2010, get out two years later at reduced levels, file for bankruptcy in 2015, and then restructure by selling off some underlying properties to its debtors.
📬 Thanks for reading Axios Pro Rata, and to copy editor Bryan McBournie! Please ask your friends, colleagues, and ChatGPT capitalists to sign up.
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