Axios Pro Rata

October 31, 2025
Top of the Morning
Core Scientific shareholders yesterday rejected a $9 billion takeover bid from CoreWeave, which had warned that it wouldn't sweeten the pot.
Why it matters: The merger failure highlights unbridled AI valuation optimism, despite intensifying bubble talk.
Catch up quick: CoreWeave first offered to buy Core Scientific in early 2024 for $1 billion, but was immediately rebuffed.
- Talks resumed this past summer, with the $9 billion all-stock agreement signed in July.
- Core Scientific's largest outside shareholder, Two Seas Capital, publicly signaled its opposition. So did proxy firms Glass Lewis and ISS.
Zoom in: The problem wasn't the premium at the time of announcement, which worked out to around 66%. Nor the merger's strategic rationale, given that the two companies already work together on providing AI data center capacity.
- Instead, Core Scientific shareholders may have been unable to accept a deal at almost any price, instead putting their faith in the infinite hockey stick.
- Sure, both companies lose gobs of money. But so does OpenAI, and it's reportedly discussing a 2027 IPO at a $1 trillion valuation. Or bankers are telling reporters that OpenAI is discussing a 2027 IPO at a $1 trillion valuation — which still speaks to the same point.
- If CoreWeave was willing to bump its Core Scientific offer by 900% between 2024 and 2025, what might it consider in a few years from now? Particularly if OpenAI is in public waters, lifting all boats.
The bottom line: There are pockets of AI-focused M&A, particularly when the acquisition targets are pre-GPT companies or nascent startups that get overwhelmed by Zuck bucks.
- But the real floodgates may not open until there is some sort of correction, or consensus that the peak is at hand.
The BFD
Human Interest, a San Francisco-based 401(k) platform, tells Axios that it's raised over $100 million at a $3 billion post-money valuation.
Why it's the BFD: This reflects the growing number of small and mid-sized businesses that are seeking to offer retirement plans to employees.
- Many of the top 401(k) players are built for Fortune 500 clients, in terms of both services and sales, leaving greenfield opportunities for Human Interest and its rivals.
Catch up quick: Yes, this is the company we discussed on Monday, after it sued rival unicorn Guideline.
Zoom in: The round included insiders Baillie Gifford, BlackRock, Marshall Wace, Morgan Stanley, and TPG.
- Human Interest was last valued at $1.3 billion in summer 2024, and says it will end 2025 with around $200 million in ARR.
The bottom line: "I want to be doing this for decades, and the only way would be as an independent, public company. But life as a small public company is pretty hard, so the timing would be when we could comfortably go public at a $10 billion-plus valuation. My guess is another 24 months." — Jeff Schneble, CEO of Human Interest
Venture Capital Deals
• PACT, a British developer of biomaterials, raised $20m in Series A funding. Forbion and HV Capital led, joined by insider Hoxton Ventures. axios.link/47knJ7a
• Lettuce Financial, an SF-based fintech platform for solopreneurs, raised $28m led by Zeev Ventures. It also acquired benefits access startup Besolo. axios.link/3JEhthj
• Archy, a San Jose, Calif.-based dental practice software platform, raised $20m in Series B funding. TCV led, joined by Bessemer Venture Partners, CRV, and Entrée Capital. axios.link/49tIpLb
🌍 Altrove, a French alt materials startup, raised $10m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Alven led, joined by Contrarian Ventures, Bpifrance, and Emblem. axios.link/3JFH1KZ
🚑 Bevel, an NYC-based AI health companion, raised $10m in Series A funding led by General Catalyst. axios.link/4nxU3Z4
• Kai, a home renovation startup, raised $10m from Zeev Ventures, Symbol VC, and Honeystone Ventures. axios.link/4qFut7a
Private Equity Deals
• Ping Identity, a Thoma Bravo portfolio company, agreed to buy Keyless, a London-based biometric authentication startup that raised around $9m in VC funding from firms like Experian and Rialto Ventures. axios.link/49sQIa4
• Tricor Pacific Capital invested in Big Country Equipment Repair, a Canadian provider of heavy equipment maintenance and repair services. axios.link/48PfdOx
• Vector Capital acquired Showpad, a provider of AI revenue enablement solutions. Existing Showpad backer Insight Partners rolled over its full stake. axios.link/3WwhaYU
Public Offerings
• Dynamix Corp. III, an energy and digital infrastructure SPAC, raised $175m in its IPO. axios.link/3L84AwB
• Gloo, a Boulder, Colo.-based provider of management software for faith-based organizations, set IPO terms to 9.1m shares at $10-$12. It would have an $801m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (GLOO). Gloo reports a $71m net loss on $28m in revenue for the first half of 2025. Backers include Thrivent, while its exec chair and tech head is ex-Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. axios.link/4hF64KM
• Princes Group, a canned food subsidiary of NewPrinces (Mila: NWL), raised £420m in a London listing. axios.link/4hCksDp
Liquidity Events
• Abry Partners sold Portfolio Holding, a Lake Forrest, Calif.-based provider of reinsurance management services and products, to Protective Life Insurance, a U.S. unit of Dai-ichi Life (Tokyo: 8750). axios.link/3Lh2avp
• Boyd Group Services (TSX: BYD) agreed to buy Joe Hudson's Collision Center from TSG Consumer Partners for $1.3b. axios.link/49uVnID
• Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is in talks to acquire SambaNova, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based AI chipmaker that's raised over $1b in VC funding, per Bloomberg. A deal likely would come in below SambaNova's last valuation of $5b, fetched in 2021. Backers include Intel Capital, SoftBank, BlackRock, GV, Walden International, GIV, Temasek, and WRVI. axios.link/4oP2P5P
• Palomar (Nasdaq: PLMR) agreed to acquire The Gray Casualty & Surety Co. from Bernhard Capital Partners and The Gray Insurance Co. for $300m in cash. axios.link/3WtGXRt
More M&A
• Fresnilllo (LSE: FRES) of Mexico agreed to buy Canada's Probe Gold (TSX: PRB) for around $500m. axios.link/4hxSXea
🚀 Globalstar (Nasdaq: GSAT), a Covington, La.-based satellite firm, is weighing a sale, and has held early talks with SpaceX, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4hFk9YH
• Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) hired Moelis & Co. to explore a takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery's (Nasdaq: WBD) studio and streaming business, which also has been the subject of offers from Paramount Skydance (Nasdaq: PSKY), per Reuters. axios.link/3LBZPeB
🏀 Mark Walter completed his purchase of the Los Angeles Lakers at a $10b valuation. axios.link/3X0Fja6
Fundraising
• Arlington Capital Partners, a PE firm focused on government-regulated industries, raised $6b for its seventh fund. axios.link/47ULGRB
• Kuwait's pension fund, the Public Institution for Social Security, is restarting PE allocations after a three-year hiatus, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4obXVjr
It's Personnel
• Feyza Haskaraman joined Felicis as a partner. She previously was with Menlo Ventures. axios.link/4hKNLnt
• Dani Tran joined Bitkraft Ventures as a principal. She previously was with Konvoy. axios.link/3JkMPJP
Final Numbers


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