This has been a whipsaw week for understanding deal trends.

The big picture: On Tuesday we got first-quarter data, which showed a 15% increase in global M&A over Q1 2024 and a 14% decline for U.S. M&A.

• Digging a bit deeper, however, showed that both the global and U.S. markets got busier as the quarter progressed. Particularly when it came to large mergers.
• That means we entered Q2 with momentum. Not the raucous energy that many dealmakers expected after Trump got elected, but still up and to the right.

State of play: Wednesday may have changed everything.

• It's way too early to know if we're at the start of a protracted trade war that wrecks global economies, or what will prove to be a short-lived skirmish.
• Such tumult, however, becomes a brick wall for many companies planning long-term investments like acquisitions. Plus, sellers may hold back while their valuations plunge.
• I've written before that uncertainty is the only certainty. But there are degrees to that statement, and right now the global economy is running a fever.

What they're saying: "We've gone from animal spirits to animal hibernation," Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, yesterday told CNBC.

• One Twitter user replied that it might be closer to "animal abuse."

The bottom line: A top bank exec told me in January that we'd have a much better sense of the deal market during Milken than during Davos. That seems to be bearing out.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners has agreed to acquire the Colonial Pipeline, which stretches 5,500 miles from Houston to New York, for around $9 billion (including debt).

Why it's the BFD: Scarcity.

• There are tons of government hurdles to building new pipelines in the U.S., despite Trump's all-in energy policies, and tariffs could make new construction even more daunting.

Zoom in: The deal formally is for the midstream asset portfolio of Colonial Enterprises, which includes Colonial Pipeline.

• BIP will invest $500 million, or around 15% of the total equity commitment, funded by recycled capital.

The bottom line: "The need for products carried by pipelines like Colonial will remain robust in the pivot away from the pivot away from fossil fuels." — Ben Geman, Axios

🚑 Neurona Therapeutics, an SF-based biotech focused on repairing dysfunctional neural circuits, raised $102m from Fidelity, Column Group, Soleus Capital, Viking Global Investors, Cormorant, Schroders Capital, LYFE Capital, Euclidean Capital, UCB Ventures, Willett Advisors, UC Investments, YK Bioventures, Berkeley Frontier Fund, Ysios Capital, Alexandria Venture Investments, and Spur Capital Partners. axios.link/3FSFtuW

• Redpanda, an SF-based data streaming startup, raised $100m in Series D funding. GV led, joined by Lightspeed. axios.link/4lcwuVL

• Hydrolix, a Portland, Ore., streaming data lake startup, raised $80m in Series C funding. QED Investors led, joined by Blumberg Capital, Frontline Ventures, Pruven Capital, Sozo Ventures and insiders Akamai, AV8 Ventures, Ericsson Ventures, Nava Ventures, Oregon Venture Fund, S3 Ventures, Uncorrelated Ventures and Wing VC. axios.link/3Ry7yKt

• Félix, a platform for cross-border remittances, raised $75m in Series B funding led by QED Investors. axios.link/4iNV5OV.

🚑 Solace, a Redwood City, Calif.-based provider of health-care navigation solutions for patient advocates, raised $60 million in Series B funding. Menlo Ventures led, joined by SignalFire and insiders Craft Ventures, Inspired Capital, and Torch Capital. axios.link/4hWH6VF

🚑 Thatch, a SF-based provider of individual coverage health reimbursement arrangements for employers, provider, raised $40m in Series B funding led by Index Ventures, and joined by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), General Catalyst, SemperVirens, PeopleTech Partners, The General Partnership, and ADP Ventures. axios.link/41ZCfOZ

🚑 Restor3d, a Durham, N.C.-based maker of personalized orthopedic implants, raised $38m from such backers as Summers Value Partners. axios.link/4cosOME

🌎 Fourier, a Palo Alto-based green hydrogen engineering startup, raised $18.5m in Series A funding. General Catalyst and Paramark Ventures co-led, joined by Airbus Ventures, GSBackers, MCJ, Borusan Ventures, and Positive Ventures. fourier.earth

• Validation Cloud, a crypto infrastructure startup, raised $15m in Series A funding. True Global Ventures led, joined by Cadenza, Blockchain Founders Fund, Side Door Ventures, and AP Capital. validationcloud.io

• Kurrent (fka Event Store), an "event-native" data platform, raised $12m. Crane Venture Partners led, joined by Creandum. current.io

🚑 Daymark Health, a Philadelphia-based cancer care startup, raised $11.5m in seed funding from Maverick Ventures, Yosemite Ventures, and Oncology Ventures. axios.link/42i0RBt

• Grace, a Franco-Swiss fintech focused on luxury item protection, raised 5.9m in seed funding. FinTech Collective and Speedinvest co-led, joined by Firstminute Capital, Purple, Kima Ventures, and Bpifrance. axios.link/4lyuur5

• General Atlantic led an investment in Frazier & Deeter, an Atlanta-based accounting and business transformation firm. PSP Capital Partners and Aksia also participated. frazierdeeter.com

• Hidden River Strategic Capital invested in Miles Ahead Brands, a portfolio of aggregate distribution companies in the Southeast and Southwest. milesaheadbrands.com

🚑 KKR dropped out of the auction process for listed German medical packaging firm Gerresheimer, per Bloomberg. It had teamed with Warburg Pincus. axios.link/41VOfAW

• Rogers Communications (TSX: RCI) agreed to sell a stake in its wireless network for C$7b to Blackstone and four Canadian pensions. axios.link/3EaDgKN

⚡ Silicon Ranch, a Nashville, Tenn.-based solar developer, secured a $500m commitment from AIP Management. axios.link/4lfj9Mj

• Soundcore Capital Partners acquired two tree-care companies — Princeton Tree Care of New Jersey and Clauser Tree Care of Pennsylvania — to launch a new acquisition platform called TreeServe. axios.link/41XOOKE

• TA Associates acquired a stake in SmartTrade, a French provider of multi-asset electronic trading and payments platforms, from Hg. axios.link/3E2A5Vy

• Vickers Vantage II, a SPAC formed by Singapore's Vickers Venture Partners, filed for a $180m IPO. axios.link/4i6ISUl

Source: Giphy

• Castillo Hermanos agreed to buy Harvest Hill Beverage Co., the maker of Sunny D and Juicy Juice, from Brynwood Partners. harvesthill.com

• Hailey Bieber is weighing a sale of makeup brand Rhode, which could fetch more than $1b, per Reuters. axios.link/4jgtbLh

• Blackstone is considering the sale of two AirTrunk data centers in Sydney and Melbourne, which each could fetch A$2b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3FSGgfo

• Hershey (NYSE: HSY) reportedly is nearing a $750m deal to buy LesserEvil, a Danbury, Conn.-based maker of organic popcorn and salty snacks, whose backers include Aria Growth Partners, Valor Equity, Invest Eco, and Touch Capital. axios.link/4hZQcAW

• WPP (LSE: WPP) acquired InfoSum, a U.K. data collaboration platform that had raised over $90m from backers like Upfront Ventures, IA Ventures, ITV and Chrysalis Investments. axios.link/43CBX1J

• Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS) reportedly cleared a DOJ antitrust hurdle for their $35b merger, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3DW69ui

• Credit Agricole (Paris: ACA) agreed to buy Swiss private bank Banque Thaler. axios.link/3G5r926

⛳ The PGA Tour rejected a new $1.5b investment offer from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, per ESPN. axios.link/4i1uoVJ

• D Capital, a Japanese lower midmarket PE firm, raised around $445m for its second fund. dcapital.jp

• RenWave Kore, a PE firm led by Elliott Investment Management alum Cody Kittle, raised $1.26b for its debut fund from LPs like Sequoia Heritage, Liberty Mutual and University of Chicago, per the WSJ. axios.link/4ik69m1

• ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) agreed to acquire Logik.ai, a provider of configure, price, quote (CPQ) solutions. axios.link/3FXlTxF

• Seth Corder joined Moderne Ventures as a managing director. He previously was a partner with High Alpha. axios.link/42k3Xop

• Elisa Schreiber joined VC firm Felicis as its first CMO. She previously was with Greylock. axios.link/3QYBsYe

• Ric Spencer left Bank of America, where he was co-head of global tech banking, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4jgVARg

The U.S. economy added 228k jobs in March, beating expectations.

• The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and 48,000 jobs were removed from the January and February reports.
• Government jobs actually increased in March, thanks to state and local hiring. Federal government lost only 4,000 jobs, but that's because the tens of thousands of DOGE cuts haven't yet been recorded, since most of them remain on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance.

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