Axios

The Iran war's economic consequences risk outlasting the conflict itself.

Why it matters: Any swift ceasefire or arrangement allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz won't undo supply shocks that could linger for months — and in some cases, years.

The CIA, Mossad and other intelligence agencies around the world were watching during Nowruz on Friday to see whether Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei would follow his father's tradition and give a new year's address.

The intrigue: When the holiday passed with only a written statement from Mojtaba, the mystery around his physical condition, whereabouts and role in Iran's war effort deepened.

President Trump said on Friday he is considering "winding down" the war with Iran without solving the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: Trump has said for several days that the war could end soon, but this is the strongest signal yet that he's actively moving in that direction. If he does walk away without reopening the strait, the U.S. would be leaving other countries to clean up a hugely consequential economic quagmire.

As the Iran war drives up jet fuel costs, travelers are bracing for airlines to raise ticket prices — making already expensive trips feel even more daunting.

The big picture: Travelers aren't powerless against rising fares and can still find opportunities to avoid even the worst price hikes, experts say.

Nearly a month into the Iran war, there are signs the conflict is poised to expand rather than conclude.

The big picture: Potential future events in the war — like escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or major changes Iran's leadership — could determine when the conflict ends.

Oil prices at four-year highs (and maybe climbing further) might nudge record U.S. production even higher — but don't expect a new boom.

Why it matters: Companies in onshore shale — the most nimble part of the industry — need lots of convincing to invest far beyond current plans, analysts say.

It has now become a familiar Wall Street two-step: Stocks stumble in the morning and mostly recover by the end of the day after President Trump says something that's viewed as reassuring about the Iran war.

Why it matters: Investors are jumping at any sign of an end to the Iran war — now in its third week and far longer than they initially predicted.

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump can't end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran's chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.

Iranian hackers tied to a recent U.S. cyberattack have been running a broader intimidation campaign that involved issuing death threats and suggesting they have ties to a Mexican cartel to "commit acts of violence," the Justice Department said Thursday.

Why it matters: The campaign shows Iran's cyber playbook is moving beyond hacking companies and is now pairing cyberattacks with tactics to coerce targets and shape narratives.

House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.

Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.